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January 31, 2010

Details like apartment safes

Apart from that, there are details like apartment safes, which could matter to clubgoers who party in their own cribs.

"You may trust your friends and roommates, but you don't have to," said Jeffrey E. Levine, the chairman of Douglaston Development and its construction arm, Levine Builders. "And every medicine cabinet has a keyed lockbox for pharmaceuticals. Viagra, Vioxx, Vicodin -- nobody needs to know but you."

The smallest studio is just under 400 square feet and it's $1,850 a month and one month free rent. The smallest two-bedroom apartment is just under 900 square feet and it's $3,590 and one month free.

Continue reading "Details like apartment safes" »

December 22, 2009

Light rail of Tempe, Arizona

The silver and teal trains that light up the bridge over Town Lake, swish through downtown, sound their bells near campus and travel along Apache Boulevard have become part of Tempe's identity.

Metro light rail has changed the landscape of the city since service began last Dec. 27. As the transit system marks its first year of operations Sunday, Tempe is celebrating the successes.


tempe_lightrail_train_PHP4B32E6D0A4073.jpg


People driving from the West and East Valley to get to the nearest light-rail station made the Phoenix and Mesa end-of-the line stops the most popular of the 28 stations. But Tempe's station near University Drive and Rural Road is on track to be the third most frequented stop. Students and faculty using that station and others hubs near Arizona State University account for a bulk of light-rail riders.

An ASU study released earlier this year also showed Tempe's land value near rail stations had increased at a greater rate compared to Phoenix and Mesa.

Continue reading "Light rail of Tempe, Arizona" »

November 20, 2009

Condos for short people: sold

There were some things his company couldn't fix. Ceilings in the tower were seven and a half feet high, about a foot and a half less than typically found in luxury condos. "He tried to squeeze an extra floor into the building," Mr. Radow says of the project's developer, William Matt. Mr. Matt declined to comment.

To help solve the height problem, Mr. Radow hired only sales people who weren't much taller than 5 feet. He sold all the units, and Lehman Brothers was thrilled

Continue reading "Condos for short people: sold" »

October 13, 2009

Foreclosures go upmarket

The market can also expect heavy losses among Option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), a product that allowed negative amortization by letting borrowers choose to pay only the minimum monthly payment. Fitch Ratings expects significant payment shocks over the next several years as a wave of Option-ARMs recast from the minimum amount to a fully amortizing principle and interest payment. These recasts are expected to drive substantial losses among the Option-ARM sector.

"Several of our investors have questioned the current loss severity in light of negative amortization and home price decline," researchers wrote in the report. "Our analysis suggests that option ARM loss severity will likely range between 60% and 70% provided home prices have stabilized."

Continue reading "Foreclosures go upmarket" »

October 10, 2009

Green and Greener in Suburban Towns

The town of Babylon, NY, came up with an offer she couldn't refuse: if she and her husband, Carlos, paid $250 for an energy audit, the town would finance the recommended upgrades. The couple would repay the town at a monthly rate below the savings on their utility bill. The audit, done this month, found that by insulating walls, basement and attic, at a cost of $6,879, the Williamses could save about $1,300 a year.

"It's an excellent deal," said Mrs. Williams, 42, a New York City correction officer. "With the bills and the mortgage, sometimes it's hard to do this at one time." New York City and other major urban centers have ambitious, high-profile environmental programs. But it turns out that throughout the suburbs, towns like Babylon, on Long Island, are exploring and adopting a wide variety of innovative ways to save energy, protect their residents' health and reduce pollution.

And there is only so much change the towns can impose. Requiring that homes be built smaller would greatly shrink the carbon footprint of buildings, but even environmentalists agree this is not realistic.

"There would be no political support to work on that side of the equation," Mr. DeLuca said.

There are other obstacles to going green. Marcia Bystryn, president of the New York League of Conservation Voters, said villages, wary of changing their character, often resist increasing building density even if that means forcing development to go elsewhere and contributing to suburban sprawl. And poor suburbs are less likely than affluent ones to join the movement, she said.

"There are no real resources, and it's unlikely that you'd have the kind of galvanizing leadership in these communities to take on climate issues," Ms. Bystryn said. "Leaders usually advocate for affordable housing and things like that."

But even wealthier areas need financial incentives in order to draw participants like Mrs. Williams. So far more than 200 homes have been audited, with potential savings of close to $1,000 a year each on average.

The town pays for the program, now a pilot, with $2 million from its solid waste reserve fund. New state and federal laws, and millions of dollars in federal stimulus grants, have also helped spur such initiatives.

"This is a program that helps the environment, helps homeowners save money, creates local jobs, reduces our reliance on fossil fuels and it's at no cost to taxpayers," said Steve Bellone, Babylon's town supervisor.

Mr. Levy, of Hofstra, noted that the fragmented government on Long Island, with its many towns and special districts, often means competition for development projects or government grants -- and that the quest to go green has created healthier rivalries.

"All the town supervisors want to be known as the leanest and greenest," he said.

Mr. Bellone said he strongly believed that sustainability was a matter of survival.

"Over time, residents are going to demand it, and housing stock and commercial stock that are green are going to be more valuable," he said. "This positions Babylon to be a prosperous community for the long term."

A version of this article appeared in print on October 11, 2009, on page MB1 of the New York edition.

Continue reading "Green and Greener in Suburban Towns" »

October 6, 2009

Hovnanian on cheap design

Even among competitors, he gained a reputation as a builder of bare-bones homes who kept prices low. In the early 1980s, for example, the typical Hovnanian condominium residence was a two-bedroom, two-bathroom dwelling that cost about $30,000. In his developments, Mr. Hovnanian kept prices down by omitting the amenities, like swimming pools and community buildings, that other builders used to attract buyers.

"There are limited recreation facilities going in because people have little time for socialization," Mr. Hovnanian told The New York Times in 1983, explaining his philosophy.

By 1989, his company had sold more than 30,000 condominiums and other residences in states stretching from New Hampshire to Florida. The projects were so popular that they sometimes sold out over a weekend. Mr. Hovnanian also operated a finance company that made loans to buyers, who sometimes bought more than one residence, including some as investments.

Since then, the company has built more than 200,000 other homes. And in recent years, it has expanded its portfolio to include the construction of medium-price homes, luxury homes and retirement communities with recreational facilities.

Continue reading "Hovnanian on cheap design" »

October 4, 2009

Low-income housing in New Orleans stokes long-simmering tensions

James Perry, executive director of the housing center and a candidate for mayor of New Orleans, said class animosity might be at the root of much of this anger, though discrimination against the poor is not a violation of the Fair Housing Act. It is illegal to discriminate against minorities, however, and given that a disproportionate number of those who need affordable housing in the area are black, he said, these arguments almost inevitably involve race.

Continue reading "Low-income housing in New Orleans stokes long-simmering tensions" »

September 25, 2009

Condo math: Units unsold, combined.

Real Estate Accounting: Percent Sold

Today, the Meier building -- officially, On Prospect Park -- is a wall of windows into the real estate bust, in Brooklyn, NY.

Faced with anemic sales, the developers have slashed prices by as much as 40 percent. They combined units -- there were originally 114 -- to boost the percentage sold in order to ease the path to mortgages. But potential buyers have walked away from at least $20 million worth of contracts.

Continue reading "Condo math: Units unsold, combined." »

July 13, 2009

Foreclosures, Meth lab bargains

Federal data on meth lab seizures suggest that there are tens of thousands of contaminated residences in the United States. The victims include low-income elderly people whose homes are surreptitiously used by relatives or in-laws to make meth, and landlords whose tenants leave them with a toxic mess.

Some states have tried to fix the problem by requiring cleanup and, at the time of sale, disclosure of the house's history. But the high cost of cleaning -- $5,000 to $100,000, depending on the size of the home, the stringency of the requirements and the degree of contamination -- has left hundreds of properties vacant and quarantined, particularly in Western and Southern states afflicted with meth use.

"The meth lab home problem is only going to grow," said Dawn Turner, who started a Web site, www.methlabhomes.com, after her son lost thousands of dollars when he bought a foreclosed home in Sweetwater, Tenn., that turned out to be contaminated. Because less is known about the history of foreclosed houses, Ms. Turner said, "as foreclosures rise, so will the number of new meth lab home owners."

Continue reading "Foreclosures, Meth lab bargains" »

July 11, 2009

Housing Prices, Income, by City, animated

1987 February to 2009 June, median income and MSA housing price index.
Housing prices grew faster than the income needed to support them.

Comments:

There is one income but 20 cities. Could show some housing/income ratio for each city. Income varies by city.
Histograms should show high water mark, at least after peaking.
Good jazz.

July 7, 2009

Between $250,000 and $500,000 is middle income, mortgage-wise

David Adamo, the chief executive of Luxury Mortgage in Stamford, Conn. likened the current mortgage market to a barbell, with pockets of availability for borrowers at both ends of the income spectrum but less for those in between. Those with annual incomes up to about $250,000 have access to mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration, while the very affluent can obtain loans from private banking institutions.

For middle class borrowers with household incomes between $250,000 and $500,000, however, mortgages are not as easy to get, Mr. Adamo said. "These people are living in places where starter homes might be $1 million," he said, "and it's really affecting them."

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will accept only loans below $729,500 in the highest-cost markets like New York City and northern New Jersey. For mortgages larger than that, mortgage brokers and bankers must find other investors who want to take the loans. (Mortgage brokers process the applications on a lender's behalf, while mortgage bankers will finance the loan and sell it shortly thereafter.)

Continue reading "Between $250,000 and $500,000 is middle income, mortgage-wise" »

June 24, 2009

Money in search of home owners ?

So tells Alyssa Katz' Our Lot: How Real Estate Came to Own Us in an engaging economic history.

How and when did home mortgages become Wall Street's playthings?
Who invented subprime loans - and how did they remain legal?
Who won the presidency promising to help as many Americans as possible buy a home?
What did Fannie Mae really do?
How did renters become second-class citizens?
Could your house be a target for mortgage fraud?
Why do new homes generate more greenhouse gases than all the nation's cars, trucks and buses combined?
Through stories about ordinary Americans who did their part to make the United States a nation of homeowners, Our Lot reveals how real estate turned into a fatal national obsession.

June 14, 2009

Foreclosure externality: 1.3 % per foreclusure

Study found that homeowners who lived within 300 feet of a foreclosed residential property experienced a drop of 1.3 percent in home value; those living 300 to 500 feet of the foreclosed home typically see a drop in value of 0.6 percent.

John P. Harding, a professor at the University of Connecticut's Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies, and an author of the study, said the properties that are most affected by a foreclosure are the ones close enough to see the peeling paint, broken windows and overgrown lawns that often accompany such situations.
The worst time for immediate neighbors to sell their homes, refinance or cash out some of their home equity, Mr. Harding said, is just before the bank takes title to the property, because that is the point of greatest neglect.

Continue reading "Foreclosure externality: 1.3 % per foreclusure" »

May 31, 2009

Why buy a used apartment ?

"My buyers have found that construction quality went down as the boom years progressed," said Tom Demsker, who runs Demsker Realty, a specialist in downtown dwellings. "It seems like things were put together a little more hastily. We have seen issues like the leveling of the floor, the grouting of the tiles, the way the cabinets were hung, that lead you to believe things were probably done faster than they should have been."

Earlier vintages tend to have larger bedrooms and sensibly restrained common areas; sellers are potentially more negotiable; and lawsuits against developers are usually over and done with. And early-boom buildings tend to have fewer investor-owned apartments.

Continue reading "Why buy a used apartment ?" »

April 26, 2009

Loan modifications are complicated for invetsors

The danger, some investors and securitization lawyers say, is that these provisions might allow some financial companies that engaged in improper lending -- and also happen to be loan servicers -- to escape legal punishment.

For example, if the servicer of an abusive loan was also the initial lender, the bill would take that company off the hook for any future predatory lending suits. The safe harbor, therefore, could encourage servicers to modify their most poisonous loans, even if they are not yet near default, just to reduce their legal exposures.

And allowing servicers to void buyback requirements on loans they modify would eliminate any liability for breaches in representations and warranties on the loans they made to investors who subsequently bought into the pools.

"Main Street investors need to know that banks who received their tax money through government bailouts are going to profit again from the safe-harbor loan modification provisions at the expense of their mutual funds, 401(k)'s and pension investments," said Thomas C. Priore, chief executive of ICP Capital, an investment firm that specializes in credit markets.

Another perverse incentive that the bill would create involves the problem of conflicting interests among investors who own the first mortgage on a property and holders of the second liens. First liens of any kind take priority and are supposed to be paid off before secondary obligations are. But many of the companies servicing loans today own second liens on the same properties whose first mortgages are held by investors in securitizations.

By removing any liability associated with modifying the first mortgage, the banks that own the second liens can expose invest

Continue reading "Loan modifications are complicated for invetsors" »

April 22, 2009

NY (Brooklyn) condo prices dipping

Northside Piers in NY by Toll Brothers saw prices fall: reductions up to 25 percent in some cases, including this 11th-floor 3BR unit, marked down to $894,990 from an ask of over $1.2 million.

Continue reading "NY (Brooklyn) condo prices dipping" »

March 23, 2009

Worker housing includes $40,000 annual mortgage assistance

Property records show that the Edward R. Morrison, a law professor and economist at Columbia University, had some help financing the purchase. They obtained a $1 million first mortgage from Countrywide Bank, now a subsidiary of Bank of America, and a second mortgage directly from Columbia University for $1,039,000.

Elizabeth Schmalz, a spokeswoman for the law school, said the Columbia mortgage was provided by the law school as "one-time compensation assistance" to help Mr. Morrison complete the sale. The first mortgage was provided by Countrywide through another university program that provides mortgages at "favorable rates" to some faculty members. That program also provides a one-time $40,000 payment and an additional $40,000 a year in housing assistance.

"The greatest challenge to recruiting and retaining faculty in New York is housing," Ms. Schmalz said.

Mr. Morrison is a practitioner of empirical legal studies, analyzing the impact of the law on people and institutions. In 2007, another Columbia law professor specializing in empirical techniques, Catherine M. Sharkey, was recruited by the law school of New York University, whose foundation provided $4.2 million toward the purchase of an apartment for her use on Central Park West and West 106th.

Continue reading "Worker housing includes $40,000 annual mortgage assistance" »

March 22, 2009

Goldman Sachs Managing Director Partners 2009

Goldman Sachs name new MD (Managing Director Partners) for 2009.

Included was Jan Hatzius, economist known for real estate commentary.

Continue reading "Goldman Sachs Managing Director Partners 2009" »

January 1, 2009

The Real Deal

therealdeal vs The Real Deal.
New York real estate action.

November 30, 2008

Bear Stearns' Building

Bear Stearns: When was the building at 383 Madison Avenue at 47th worth more than the banking firm ?

bear_stearns_madison.png

See also: Value of GM vs value of GM building.

Continue reading "Bear Stearns' Building" »

November 27, 2008

Voting: more than Yea or Nay

It can be daunting for a first-timer. When a facilitator calls for consensus, members hold up cards to signify their positions on an issue. (1) Green means the holder agrees with the decision; (2) blue means he or she is neutral; (3) yellow, is unsure or unclear; orange, has serious reservations but will not block consensus; and (4) red, will block consensus. The group recently added a (5) white card to signify "I'm not up to speed on this issue because I didn't do my homework."

The revealing voting of co-housing in Brooklyn.

Continue reading "Voting: more than Yea or Nay" »

August 5, 2008

Foreclosure Pulse

Realty Trac's Foreclosure Pulse: hype for bargain home buyers ?

August 4, 2008

Housing Wire

Housingwire is a lively news source for the mortgage and residential real estate industries.

July 27, 2008

Urban Digs:economics of NYC real estate

urbandigs tracks real estate in NY -- more aimed at investors than at consumers.

July 22, 2008

McMansions no more (Leigh County, PA)

Bethlehem Township developer Abraham Atiyeh announced two weeks ago that he's building a downtown Bethlehem development of town homes starting at $129,000, and national builder Pulte Homes has halted its large-home building in the area and last winter began marketing a new home, called "The Lehigh", with 1,050 square feet and starting price of $139,000.

McMansions No More ** Fewer behemoth homes may be built in the Lehigh Valley as turmoil in the housing market opens the door for smaller, more affordable living
Morning Call - Allentown, Pa.
Author: Matt Assad
Date: May 25, 2008
Start Page: A.1
Section: National
Text Word Count: 2299

[Via McAll]

July 8, 2008

Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter tallies failed lenders

The Implode-O-Meter is the brainchild of Aaron Krowne, a former researcher
at Emory University in Atlanta. A computer scientist and mathematician,
Mr. Krowne, 28, started the site in 2007, believing that the troubles in the
housing market, and by extension the mortgage industry, would worsen.

He was right -- and the Implode-O-Meter took off. Traffic on the site soared,
reaching as many as 100,000 regular visitors, and advertising dollars rolled in.
Mr. Krowne quit his day job and hired 10 people for his company, Implode-Explode Heavy Industries.

"The crisis has come in waves," Mr. Krowne said. "It just keeps coming."

Business: Loan Pains Turned Site Into a Hit
By LOUISE STORY
Published: July 8, 2008
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter, a Web site, is gleefully tallying the
number of lenders that run into trouble.

June 10, 2007

Loop Net, Commercial Real Estate Listings

LoopNet, offers commercial real estate listings:
investor and customer perspectives.

June 5, 2007

House flipper fraud: Flip This House, Sam Leccima in Atlanta

'Flip This House' Star Accused of Fraud

On an episode of A&E's popular reality series "Flip This House," Atlanta
businessman Sam Leccima sits in front of a run-down house and calls
buying and selling real estate his passion.

Now authorities and legal filings claim that Leccima's true passion was
a series of scams that included faking the home renovations shown on
the cable TV show and claiming to have sold houses he never owned.

"This is, indeed, a con artist," said Sonya McGee, an Atlanta pharmaceutical
representative who says Leccima took $4,000 from her in an investment
scheme.

Continue reading "House flipper fraud: Flip This House, Sam Leccima in Atlanta" »

June 3, 2007

FTSE property index

*Its full title is the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT index, which is a mouthful for anyone.
FTSE stands for Financial Times/Stock Exchange, EPRA for the European Public
Real Estate Association and NAREIT for the National Association of Real
Estate Investment Trusts.

The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index Series is designed to
represent general trends in eligible real estate equities worldwide.
Relevant real estate activities are defined as the ownership, disposure
and development of income-producing real estate.

The index series includes a range of regional and country indices,
Dividend+ indices, and a REITs and Non-REITs series. In response
to market demand, FTSE Group has also expanded the series to
include two new innovative benchmarks, The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT
Property Sector Index Series and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Investment
Focus Index Series.

Continue reading "FTSE property index" »

April 25, 2007

Housing spot prices from Radar

Radar Logic tracks housing prices, instantly.
( Instantly = daily )
Via Miller Samuel.

April 2, 2007

NAR hype

"It's a great time to buy," said Pat Vredevoogd Combs, NAR's president. "
There's great amounts of inventory and interest rates are historically low.
We've got jobs being created."


Continue reading "NAR hype" »

April 1, 2007

Mortgage Who's who: Bob Tedeschi on mortgages at NYT

Bob Tedeschi takes a NY-centric look at mortgages.

tedeschi.190.jpg

March 24, 2007

Safe from Sub-prime in the suburbs ?

Even affluent suburbs have their share of such borrowers.

Steven Habetz, chief executive of Threshold Mortgage, a
broker based on Westport, Conn., says subprime loans
account for about 5 percent of his business. That could
drop, though, as lenders leave the market.

March 13, 2007

Storage Nation

Some people are astonished that I’m so proud of it.
They think we’re funny that we’re spending money
to store things.

-- Beth Silver Pilchik, 36, a marketing consultant who
admits talking about her storage unit with friends at
cocktail parties.

She also jokes that the storage locker she rents at
Manhattan Mini Storage has better security than
their Upper East Side apartment.

Continue reading "Storage Nation" »

March 11, 2007

LIC Alliance

Long Island City Alliance on LIC development
and LIC and Astoria life.

February 13, 2007

Housing Prices could go down, down,

it would seem that a sequence of price declines continuing for
many years has some substantial probability of happening.

Traditional finance theory has trouble reconciling even a semi-predictable
sequence of price declines with basic notions of market efficiency. The
situation we are facing is a reminder of the glaring inefficiencies and
incompleteness of existing markets for residential real estate, and
may be regarded as evidence that institutional changes will be coming
in future years to fundamentally change the nature of these markets.

Things That Go Boom
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
February 8, 2007; Page A15

February 8, 2007

Risk-based Capital Requirements for Mortgage Assets

Risk-based Capital Requirements for Mortgage Assets, by the Federal Reserve. [ PDF ]

February 4, 2007

China curbs urban housing demand

BEIJING (AP) -- Foreigners in Beijing will be limited to buying
a single home for their own use under new curbs imposed amid
efforts to slow a surge in housing costs, newspapers reported
Saturday.

Foreign home-buyers in Beijing will have to prove they have lived
in China for a year for work or study, and will be barred from
renting out the property, the Beijing Morning Post and China
Daily newspapers said.

Continue reading "China curbs urban housing demand" »

January 11, 2007

Property Bytes, India

Citi is big in Indian Property.

January 9, 2007

Real Estate Futures / Squidoo

RE futures squido lense looks at trends in home prices.

January 8, 2007

Housing Derivatives

Housingderivatives tracks futures and options in housing prices.

December 17, 2006

Housing markets at Seeking Alpha

Housing markets at Seeking Alpha.

November 11, 2006

Home builders going bankrupt ?

buildersgoingbankrupt supplies downward hype the to real estate economy.

Previously: Tracking home builders' stock.

October 17, 2006

Who's who of Real Estate economics 3: Todd Sinai

We don’t have any house price indexes that get it right
-- Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. bio, home,

Continue reading "Who's who of Real Estate economics 3: Todd Sinai" »

October 14, 2006

Multiple Listing Service: Long Island, New York.

MLS LI: Multiple Listing Service: Long Island, New York.
Realtor listings for Nassau and Suffolk (and Peconic) counties.

October 7, 2006

Who's who of Real Estate economics 2: Dave Seiders, National Association of Homebuilders

Once a sales contract is signed, there's no way of recording
the cancellation or putting the home back in inventory.
Builders keep track of gross and net sales; we don't have a
net sales number from Commerce.

-- Dave Seiders, chief economist at
the National Association of Homebuilders in Washington.

The Census Bureau, which is one of the Commerce Department's
statistical agencies, counts an initial new home sale: Sales go
up and the ``for sale'' inventory is reduced. If the sale is
canceled, it isn't reflected in revisions to previous months.
What happens? When the home is ``resold,'' statisticians
ignore that transaction.

We don't double count.
-- Steven Berman, the survey statistician for the residential branch
of the Census Bureau's manufacturing and construction division.

Continue reading "Who's who of Real Estate economics 2: Dave Seiders, National Association of Homebuilders" »

October 5, 2006

Trulia, Truliablog

Trulia tracks real estate markets; updates in TruliaBlog.
Sample housing market search Great Neck NY, 3 bedroom, 2 bath.

An example of good URL engineering:
trulia.com/NY/Great_Neck/price_0-750000/baths_2-3/.


See also: Zillow.

October 4, 2006

Street Easy follows LIC Queens condos

StreetEasy monitors real estate markets; example: Long Island City, Queens.

September 20, 2006

Credit Slips

CreditSlips covers consumer lending from an
aspiring consumer protectionist regulator perspective.

Generally well informed and level headed:
debt trading,

Consuming is where consumers feel in control
(compare to John Fiske, "Shopping for Pleasure: Malls, Power & Resistance").

Innumerate: one number represents the whole population ?

September 2, 2006

Arris Lofts LIC $650 per square foot

Arris Lofts (Eagle Electric Company hq) 865 sf studio listed for $515K -- Queenswest.

Riverview in Astoria (Eagle Electric Company factory on 21st Street ) is cheaper ?

Arris Lofts reports they have 100 contracts currently out for review,
16 of which were issued today alone. A waiting list of 4,200 potential
buyers was amassed in the months before the sales office opened.

-- RealGotham.

September 1, 2006

Mortgage economists, who's who 1: Scott Anderson at Wells Fargo

Scott Anderson at Wells Fargo: bio.

Scott Anderson holds a doctorate in economics with an
emphasis in monetary theory and international trade
and finance from George Washington University. He is
responsible for analysis and forecasting of international,
national and regional economic trends. His areas of focus
include macroeconomic and interest rate forecasting,
financial markets, and international economics.

Mr. Anderson provides daily analyses of U.S. economic
news, and produces the Wells Fargo Economics macroeconomic
forecasts. He authors the bi-monthly Wells Fargo California
Outlook report and co-authors Wells Fargo’s weekly Financial
Market Strategies report and the monthly Economic Indicators
report. In addition, he covers the United Kingdom, China, South
Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore as part of our
bi-monthly international report.

Mr. Anderson's research is widely read by the financial
and business community and he has appeared in
numerous media including: CNN, Bloomberg, MSNBC,
CBS MarketWatch, BBC, NPR, Wall Street Journal, New York
Times, Financial Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles
Times, Chicago Tribune, USA Today, San Francisco
Chronicle.

Mr. Anderson joined Wells Fargo as senior economist in 2001.

Citation: decade of flat home prices.

August 28, 2006

Echelon in Long Island City

Echelon LIC; hype at the developers group. Subway adverts.

Update: picture gallery from LICNYC.

Continue reading "Echelon in Long Island City" »

August 24, 2006

Urban Digs

Another consumer guide to NY real estate: urbandigs

August 17, 2006

The Real Estate Observer

therealestate.observer by the New York Observer
tracks New York real estate's luxury and upscale
developments.

August 13, 2006

zillowblog, real estate mapping and data services

Zillow, the real estate mapper, blogs.
And Zillow adds new real estate mapping and data services,
drive-by appraisal via SMS.

See also Trulia.

August 12, 2006

Carnivalofrealestate

Carnival of real estate
Best of Real Estate this week.

Continue reading "Carnivalofrealestate" »

August 5, 2006

mortgagebankers

Mortgage Bankers have an association; news on refinancing, prepayment,
orginations, servicing, delinquency, foreclosures, MBS, ABS, securitization.

More like this: mortgage.

August 2, 2006

House price decline, why ?

At another smaller project, the Abbey, a former parish
building on East 16th Street being converted to condominiums,
most of the apartments sold for the asking price, or close
to it. But according to property records, one apartment,
a duplex on the top two floors, sold at a discount of
$500,000, or about 27 percent below the asking
price. Eight of 31 apartments are still listed as available.

The developer, Herbert Hirsch, said that he became
convinced that a sloping triangular roof limited the
use of some of the top floor of the duplex, so he
reduced the price
to account for this. He said buyers
were out there looking but were worried by press
accounts about the market and were postponing purchases.

Not a declining market, no Sir.

Continue reading "House price decline, why ?" »

August 1, 2006

Larger apartments, higher ceilings, open views, add value

Strong demand for larger apartments with higher ceilings,
open views and well-designed kitchens and bathrooms
— the type of apartments that have not been built in
large numbers in a generation.

The bullish view of the Manhattan real estate market is based
on the belief that it is unique -- a magnet for wealth from
across the country and around the world.

Continue reading "Larger apartments, higher ceilings, open views, add value" »

July 29, 2006

Long Island Multiple Listing Service

MLSLI, the MLS of Long Island.
House shopping in suburban Long Island.

July 16, 2006

Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?

An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model:
How Much Do House Prices Matter?

Mortgage-backed securities, with their relative structural simplicity
and their lack of recovery rate uncertainty if default occurs, are
particularly suitable for developing and testing risky debt valuation
models. A two-factor structural mortgage pricing model in which
rational mortgage-holders endogenously choose when to prepay
and default subject to
i. explicit frictions (transaction costs) payable when terminating
their mortgages,
ii. exogenous background terminations, and
iii. a credit related impact of the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on
prepayment.

We estimate the model using pool-level mortgage termination data
for Freddie Mac Participation Certificates, and find that the effect of
the house price factor on the results is both statistically and
economically significant. Out-of-sample estimates of MBS prices
produce option adjusted spreads of between 5 and 25 basis
points, well within quoted values for these securities.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Chris Downing, Richard Stanton, and Nancy E. Wallace,
An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model:
How Much Do House Prices Matter
?
(link to 406 K, PDF file)

Chris Downing, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC
Richard Stanton, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Nancy E. Wallace, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley

Continue reading "Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?" »

June 29, 2006

Futures markets in home prices: Altos

Altos Research real estate price and market tracking.

Predicting home prices with futures' markets at Altos.

For a prospective homeowner, indicies based on regional
prices are nearly meaningless in real estate prices. Consider
that the median price in Los Altos, CA, lost 25% between 2000
and 2001 when the last bubble burst. 2006 has finally
moved prices back over their 2000 peak. But San Jose,
median priced at half that of Los Altos, never even dipped
in that period. For those of you from outside the Bay Area,
Los Altos is less than 10 miles from San Jose. The CME
housing market would have been an ineffective hedge
for my Los Altos home.


More: Altos Research's Mike Simonsen some maps

June 26, 2006

NY Real Estate maps: Shark Bites

Curbed and Property Shark team for NY Property Map theme of the week at Shark Bites.

June 11, 2006

Curbed: New York Real Estate / Lockhart Steele

Deflate real-estate hype. Update twice per shift. Former magazine
editor Lockhart Steele mocks overpriced condo listings and the
language brokers use to pump up and pimp out properties.

PriceChopper highlights grossly overpriced apartments and
takes credit when the asking price drops.

BubbleWatch links to optimistic market forecasts. Curbed's major
feature drawback is its New York-centric coverage and its
obsession with celebrity and luxury properties. Occasional
ganders at Los Angeles and Boston.

May 30, 2006

Best-Practices in Mortgage Default Risk Measurement and Economic Capital

Best-Practices in Mortgage Default Risk Measurement and Economic Capital

Each of the major processes used by industry participants to measure
so-called “credit risk” for first mortgage products. The study has three
sections:

Section I provides a discussion of the general concept of Economic
Capital (“EC”), how EC is measured and used by best-practice banks,
and how EC concepts used by industry practitioners differ from
regulatory definitions of capital.

Section II discusses the various types of theoretical “credit risk
models” that are used by practitioners to measure EC for mortgages.

Section III conducts several empirical experiments in which large
historical databases are used to estimate the credit risk models
described in Section II. The empirical work is aimed at helping
the practitioner and the regulator to evaluate the results of
alternative models.

David Kaskowitz, LoanPerformance
Kyle Lundstedt, LoanPerformance
Alexander Kipkalov, Washington Mutual Inc.
John Mingo, Mingo & Co.
PDF.

May 28, 2006

Mortgage handbook at Treasury

Mortgage Banking, Comptroller’s Handbook (March 1998)

Sample entry:
Price level adjusted mortgage (PLAM). A mortgage loan in
which the interest rate remains fixed, but the outstanding
balance is adjusted for inflation.

PDF

May 26, 2006

House Price CAPM

Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanism Approaches:
Estimating a Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for House
Price Index Returns with SAS

Many researchers erroneously use the framework of linear
regression models to analyze time series data when predicting
changes over time or when extrapolating from present conditions
to future conditions. Caution is needed when interpreting the results
of these regression models. Granger and Newbold (1974) discovered
the existence of ‘spurious regressions’ that can occur when the
variables in a regression are nonstationary. While these regressions
appear to look good in terms of having a high R2 and significant
t-statistics, the results are meaningless. Both analysis and modeling
of time series data require knowledge about the mathematical model
of the process.

This paper introduces a methodology that utilizes the power
of the SAS DATA STEP, and PROC X12
and REG procedures. The DATA STEP uses the SAS LAG and
DIF functions to manipulate the data and create an additional
set of variables including Home Price Index Returns (HPI_R1), first
differenced, and lagged first differenced. PROC X12 seasonally
adjusts the time series. Resulting variables are manipulated
further (1) to create additional variables that are tested for
stationarity, (2) to develop a cointegration model, and (3) to
develop an error correction mechanism modeled to determine
the short-run deviations from long-run equilibrium. The relevancy
of each variable created in the data step to time series analysis is
discussed. Of particular interest is the coefficient of the error
correction term that can be modeled in an error correction mechanism
to determine the speed at which the series returns to equilibrium. The
main finding is that Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with very
slow shortrun acceleration paths to the equilibrium have higher
returns and risk associated with house price returns than
MSAs with very rapid speed-of-adjustment coefficients.

-- Ismail Mohamed and Theresa R. DiVenti, PDF.

May 14, 2006

Matrix @ Miller Samuel

Home buying reasons vary by generation and that open
houses are now on iPod video.
-- Matrix at Miller Samuel.

April 18, 2006

Home value by room count, Miller Samuel

Home value by rooms by Miller Samuel.
This regression is crying out for a log transformation.

And what do all the data points with fractional room counts represent ?

*

March 16, 2006

McMansion congratulations

When neighbors return, after having moved out temporarily to
have one of these steroid palaces built for them, I'm at a loss
for what to say.

Nice house seems insincere.

Where the hell did you get the money ?
would be aggressive and intrusive.

But it seems as if you should say something, right?
I want to say,

Why ? or,

You expecting quintuplets ?

I settle for

Looks like it's really coming along.

December 30, 2005

New Haven re-development

One portion of New Haven's facility symbolizes the city's transition from
an old economy industrial powerhouse to a growing force in the new
economy. New Haven's former Winchester Arms Company complex,
established in 1866 and open for more than a century, today is the
site of Science Park, a research-oriented business incubator.
Science Park houses more than 70 companies and 1,400 employees.

The park is in the midst of a three-year, $15 million redevelopment
plan that includes work to clear space for new state-of-the-art
manufacturing and laboratory facilities.

New Haven offers an extensive array existing facilities as well as
build-to-suit sites. The transformation of old to new also can
be seen in one of the city's hottest trends - turning industrial/
commercial space into loft-style living and working spaces. And
modern retail space is available in such rising areas as the
Ninth Square district, which is linked to successful shopping
areas at Wooster Square, Broadway and upper Chapel Street.

Continue reading "New Haven re-development" »

December 11, 2005

Housing bubble was worldwide

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many
countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and
Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to
prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000.
What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

...

America's housing market heated up later than those in other countries,
such as Britain and Australia, but it is now looking more and more similar.
Even the Federal Reserve is at last starting to fret about what is happening.

Prices are being driven by speculative demand. A study by the National
Association of Realtors (NAR) found that 23% of all American houses
bought in 2004 were for investment, not owner-occupation. Another
13% were bought as second homes. Investors are prepared to buy houses
they will rent out at a loss, just because they think prices will keep rising
—the very definition of a financial bubble. “Flippers” buy and sell new
properties even before they are built in the hope of a large gain. In Miami,
as many as half of the original buyers resell new apartments in this way.
Many properties change hands two or three times before somebody
finally moves in.

Continue reading "Housing bubble was worldwide" »

December 6, 2005

Google maps mania

Google maps mania charts the
mash ups and applications.

November 9, 2005

Real estate sentiment at Miller Samuel Soapbox

Real estate sentiment and appraisal of the New York market at
Miller Samuel's Soapbox. [*]
2005 Dec: Promoted to blogroll2.

November 5, 2005

Real Estate in Academia: The Schools

Saunders, UBC
Harvard Joint Center
UCB
Penn (Zell-Lurie Center)

October 14, 2005

housing map 2

census track vs google map mash up.


Continue reading "housing map 2" »

October 10, 2005

infoproc / Stephen (Steve) Hsu

Infoproc (Steve) is a physicist interested in economic inference.

Example: exporting risk, Redmond visit.

September 30, 2005

Housing Map

Housing Maps
the criagslist - googlemap mash up.

See also housing maps by census.

Live near the trees.

Continue reading "Housing Map" »

September 23, 2005

Housing, constant quality index

macroblog looks at Shiller's claims of a housing bubble is about
about to burst.

Is the increase in housing indexes due to bigger, better houses,
or an genuine increase in the overall housing market ?

Housing price vs housing quality, now with quality control.

September 22, 2005

bubblemeter

bubblemeter / David Jackson: yet another housing bubble blog.

September 20, 2005

local froth and bubbles in housing

Housing bubble trackers proliferate: here's six more.

NY housing bubble, NY
Property Grunt is NY-centric and offers a more commentary.
Jersey Shore, NJ
Boston, MA
Piggington, San Diego, CA
San Diego, CA
Seattle, WA
SoCal (CA)
Marin, CA

Continue reading "local froth and bubbles in housing" »

September 3, 2005

Track home builders stock

Track home builders' stock.

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)
KB Home (KBH)
Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM)
DR Horton Inc. (DHI)
KB Home (KBH)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV)

August 18, 2005

Property Grunt ++

Property Grunt is NY-centric and offers charming vignettes
with commentary. Hereby boosted from blogroll 4 to blogroll 2.

August 17, 2005

reowire (real estate owned (REO)) / Paul Jackson

Reowire offers more analysis than the pure doom and envy of most
housing bubble blogs, despite focusing on bank-owned real estate,
aka real estate owned (REO), and default servicing management.

Update 2005 October: downgraded to blogroll4 due to inactivity.

August 11, 2005

US Housing Bubble

* OFHEO HPI official housing price index.
Another US housing bubble blog.
Mostly links of doom.

* Ben Jones
Patrick Killelea, National and SF.
Another Fucked Borrower is pure gloom, San Diego-centric.
Bubble meter
Ready to burst gives a pop view.
Housing News
housingtracker tracks MLS inventory and quartile prices.
Bubble tracking is mostly statistics, San Diego-centric.
* Housing Panic
Bubbleinfo
boy in the big housing bubble, eg.
Global Economic Analysis / Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Continue reading "US Housing Bubble" »

July 25, 2005

Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities (Longstaff)

The optimal recursive refinancing problem where a borrower minimizes
his lifetime mortgage costs by repeatedly refinancing when rates
drop. Key factors affecting the optimal decision are the cost of
refinancing and the possibility that the mortgagor may have to
refinance at a premium rate because of his credit.

The optimal recursive strategy often results in prepayment being
delayed significantly relative to traditional models. Furthermore,
mortgage values can exceed par by much more than the cost of
refinancing. Applying the recursive model to an extensive sample of
mortgage-backed security prices, we find that the implied credit
spreads that match these prices closely parallel borrowers’ actual
spreads at the origination of the mortgage. These results suggest
that optimal recursive models may provide a promising alternative
to the reduced-form prepayment models widely used in practice.

Francis A. Longstaff, Anderson School of Management.

Continue reading "Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities (Longstaff)" »

July 21, 2005

Asset prices by Enricode Giorgi

Default models and asset pricing models at Enricode Giorgi's resource,
some with correlated defaults.

July 18, 2005

PMI Group

Economic and Real Estate Trends from the PMI Group.

July 9, 2005

Subprime mortgage rate spread at origination

Effects largely captured by a single variable: spread at origination
(SATO). SATO measures the difference in the mortgage rate between the
specified loan and a constant-quality subprime mortgage rate. Assuming
that lenders price borrower risk efficiently, a higher SATO
implies a poorer-credit borrower.

Search for more .

June 12, 2005

Big Picture / Barry Ritholtz

New Yorker, car fan, and economist Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture, a well presented
peresonal economic journal. Sample article, Homeowners Go Deep in Debt to Buy
Real Estate
.

Also writes as Amateur Investor columnist at The Street / Real Money.

Update 2008 Noverber: Now at Ritholtz.com: example.

Continue reading "Big Picture / Barry Ritholtz" »

June 5, 2005

behavioural finance at capuchinomics

Capuchinomics: *.

Behavioural finance analysis of market trends, especially housing bubble.

Yet, efficient market theory cannot answer these questions:

-Why do companies with stable cashflows, earnings, sales and profit
margins have such volatile stocks?

-If the financials are stable, why is there so much trading?

-Why do prices change so much from day to day or month to month?

-Is that much value created and destroyed in such small time frames?

-Why do stocks increase or decrease by large amounts when often the
underlying financials only change by incremental amounts?

Continue reading "behavioural finance at capuchinomics" »

May 17, 2005

Inmann

Inmann, mortgage blogger, is barkerishly spammy.

Useful listing of mortgage headlines; links are to pay-per-view versions
of what can was distributed by wire services.

May 15, 2005

Mortgage business complements auto business

  auto lending
+ real estate lending
-------
synergy

”We find the mortgage business to be very complementary with our
auto business,” said Bob Brisco, chief executive of CarsDirect.

Continue reading "Mortgage business complements auto business" »

May 8, 2005

Shiller speaks

Robert Shiller speaks about Real Estate and 'Irrational Exuberance' on NPR.

More and more home owners are refinancing, and a full quarter of
homes sold last year went to investors instead of live-in homeowners.
How long can this hot market last, and when it ends, are we looking at
a minor chill, or a full-blown ice age?

April 28, 2005

Urban Review STL

Excelent Urban Review STL architrectural review of Saint Louis, MO
housing and commercial real estate.

April 26, 2005

Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity, De Franco

Modeling Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity
Using Loan Level Data

Three essays on modeling residential mortgages.

Chapter 1 presents and estimates a new model of loss given
default using a new dataset of prime and subprime mortgages. The
model combines option theory proxies with information on the loan
contract and the cash flow position of the borrower. The results
suggest that severity on subprime and adjustable rate mortgages are
similar to losses on fixed rate prime loans, but that investor owned
properties have significantly higher losses than owner occupied
houses. The results also suggest systemic overappraisals on refinanced
loans.

Chapter 2 uses option pricing methodology to value the prepayment and
default options associated with a residential mortgage, if house
prices are mean reverting.

Numerical solutions compare the results from the mean reverting house
price model to the results from a model where house prices follow a
geometric Brownian motion process.

The main contributions are:

(1) the value of the implicit rent (service flow) is derived as a
function of the house price process instead of assumed to be constant,
as in prior research;

(2) the mean reverting model has additional factors that may help
forecast mortgage termination; and

(3) the house price process is shown to have a significant effect on
the value of a mortgage over a wide range of parameter values.

Chapter 3 presents a modeling framework for residential mortgages that
has separate models for each loan payment status (Current, 30 Days
Late, 60 Days Late, 90+ Days Late, in Foreclosure, in REO, or Paid
Off). It is shown that several classes of traditional mortgage
prepayment and default models are restricted forms of this model, and
that the restrictions are rejected empirically.

Continue reading "Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity, De Franco" »

April 25, 2005

Housing after boom

Housing after the boom explained by angry bear:

Expectation is for slowly declining prices in much of the
United States and significantly lower transaction volumes
nationwide.

April 24, 2005

Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages: Fabozzi , Kalotay and Yang

A new approach for modeling the prepayments of a mortgage pool
shows how to value mortgage pools and agency mortgage-backed
securities. A notion of refinancing efficiency describes the
full spectrum of refinancing behavior.

The approach has two distinguishing features:

(1) The primary focus is on understanding the market value of a
mortgage, in contrast with standard models that strive (often
unsuccessfully) to predict future cash flows, and

(2) we use two separate yield curves, one for discounting mortgage
cash flows and the other for MBS cash flows.

An Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages and Mortgage-
Backed Securities

To appear in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Dec 2004, jrg 7, nr 8, december 2004, pages 949-978.
[PDF]

April 20, 2005

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk offers nicely illustrated economics.

There has been a significant increase in mortgage brokers. There
has been a similar increase in residential building trades, appraisers,
home inspectors and other housing related occupations. The
impact of a housing slowdown on employment will be significant.

What will the end of the refinance boom and the housing boom
do to the mortgage industry ?

Continue reading "Calculated Risk" »

April 16, 2005

housepricecrash.co.uk

housepricecrash.co.uk expert opines on the UK estate market.
Also tabulates industry index data.

See also Vancouver Housing Market and The Housing Bubble.

April 14, 2005

thehousingbubble

thehousingbubble, not to be confused with housingbubble track
over financed, over mortgaged real estate.

April 13, 2005

Vancouver housing market

Vancouver housing market.
Somewhere between curbed and housing bubble.

Noticed and awarded.

April 9, 2005

Santa Barbara bubble, dismissed

A Santa Barbara real estate tout dismisses claims of a
real estate bubble.

April 6, 2005

Housing Bubble Bust

Housing Bubble Bust is San Francisco-centric and frequently updates
its headlines.
Also a good list of links (at page bottom).

April 5, 2005

Housing bubble bloggers

housingbubble, moderately frequent. not to be confused with
thehousingbubble. Both track home of those who over finance,
over mortgage their real estate.

April 3, 2005

Dynamist housing bubble

Dynamist Virginia Postrel looked at rent to own costs and
saw a SoCal
housing bubble.

March 1, 2005

Institutional Investor

Institutional Investor tracks Real Estate Finance and Investment.

January 9, 2005

Mortgage Blogs

The Mortgages Blog (by weblogsinc) is frequently updated with
mortgage industry news mixes some news items and more outside
links with descriptions.

Bankrate is potpourri of mortgage and consumer finance content,
more written for consumers than lenders, and syndicated onto
many consumer sites.