Bubbles as mania
a bubble is a form of psychological malfunction. And like mental illness there's a tricky gray area between being really sick and just having a few problems, Mr. Shiller said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The solution: a checklist like psychologists use to determine if someone is suffering from, say, depression. So here is Mr. Shiller's checklist.
- Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or dot-com shares
- Great public excitement about said increases
- An accompanying media frenzy
- Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren't
- Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
- "New era" theories to justify unprecedented price increases
- A decline in lending standards
Business
DealBook: Shiller's List: How to Diagnose the Next Bubble
By By JACK EWING
Published: January 27, 2010
Robert J. Shiller, the Nobel-prize winning Yale economist, suggested Wednesday -- a bit whimsically -- that bubbles could be diagnosed using the same methodology psychologists use to diagnose mental illness.