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How 2015 is not like 1999

In 1999 a dotcom with no revenue could burn $100 million in one year, with $2 million of that going to a Super Bowl ad. Its namesake website could offer a terrible user experience, and still the company could go public. Investors would chase the rising stock price, which would drive up the price further, which in turn drew more investors, feeding a textbook 'speculative bubble' that burst the moment everyone realised there wasn't any there there.

This kind of stuff isn't happening any more. It's not that the internet has become less important, or investors less 'irrationally exuberant' -- it's that start-ups have gotten cheaper. A web start-up today has almost no fixed capital costs. There's no need to invest in broadband infrastructure, since it's already there. There's no need to buy TV ads to get market share, when you can grow organically via search (Google) and social networks (Facebook). 'Cloud' web servers, like nearly all other services a virtual company might need -- such as credit-card processing, automated telephone support, mass email delivery -- can be paid for on demand, at prices pegged to Moore's Law.

We call ourselves web developers, software engineers, builders, entrepreneurs, innovators. We're celebrated, we capture a lot of wealth and attention and talent. We've become a vortex on a par with Wall Street for precocious college grads. But we're not making the self-driving car. We're not making a smarter pill bottle. Most of what we're doing, in fact, is putting boxes on a page. Users put words and pictures into one box; we store that stuff in a database; and then out it comes into another box.

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