Delegate math vs Cruz 16 or Hillary 08
Leading proportional states but trailing in winner-take-all states does not add up to victory.
delegate allocation matrix puts Cruz's campaign at a serious disadvantage. For example, if Cruz wins the primary in his home state of Texas by one vote, he'll probably win a handful more delegates than his nearest competitor. By contrast, if Marco Rubio or Trump win Florida by one vote, either would win a whopping 99 more delegates than his nearest competitor
-- David Wasserman, U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report, via 538.