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January 28, 2010

Bubbles as mania


a bubble is a form of psychological malfunction. And like mental illness there's a tricky gray area between being really sick and just having a few problems, Mr. Shiller said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The solution: a checklist like psychologists use to determine if someone is suffering from, say, depression. So here is Mr. Shiller's checklist.

  • Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or dot-com shares
  • Great public excitement about said increases
  • An accompanying media frenzy
  • Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren't
  • Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
  • "New era" theories to justify unprecedented price increases
  • A decline in lending standards

Continue reading "Bubbles as mania" »

December 12, 2009

American Consumers Owe, Borrow Less

Figures released this week by the Federal Reserve showed that Americans owed $10.8 trillion on home mortgages at the end of the third quarter, down 2.2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest level since mid-2007.

Similarly, the Fed said that outstanding credit card bills in October totaled $888 billion, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier. That number was the lowest since March 2007.

Those trends do not, however, necessarily indicate that Americans have paid down their debts and are starting to lead the more frugal lives that some financial planners have been recommending for years. There has undoubtedly been some of that, but the declines also indicate that banks have been forced to write off a lot of bad debts and have grown more stingy in granting credit.

As can be seen from the accompanying charts, banks' credit card write-offs have soared, to an annual rate of 10.2 percent in the third quarter of this year.

And the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that at the end of the third quarter, 4.5 percent of all mortgages were in foreclosure -- one in 22 mortgages. It said another 6.1 percent -- one in 16 -- were at least two months overdue. Those figures are for all mortgages, not just subprime ones.

Continue reading "American Consumers Owe, Borrow Less" »

December 6, 2009

Private schools, private loans, not all exclusive and elusive

The for-profit higher education sector is no stranger to scandal. In the 1980s and early '90s, it came to light that hundreds of fly-by-night schools had been set up solely to reap profits from the federal student loan programs, in part by preying on poor people and minorities. The most unscrupulous of them enrolled people straight off the welfare lines, and got them to sign up for the maximum amount of federal student loans available--sometimes without their knowledge or consent.

The rampant abuses caught the attention of the news media, sent shockwaves through Capitol Hill, and led to a year-long, high-profile Senate investigation led by Senator Sam Nunn, the Georgia Democrat. The standing-room-only hearings had all the trappings of scandal, with trade school officials pleading the Fifth and a school owner, who had been convicted of defrauding the government, brought to the witness table in handcuffs and leg irons.

Key lawmakers considered kicking all trade schools out of the federal student aid programs--a virtual death sentence given the institutions' heavy reliance on these funds. But Congress ultimately stepped back from the brink and instead strengthened the Department of Education's authority to weed out problem institutions. Under the new rules, for-profit colleges had to get at least 15 percent of their tuition money from sources other than federal loans and financial aid. Also, if more than a quarter of a school's students consistently defaulted on their loans within two years of graduating or dropping out, the school could be barred from participating in federal financial aid programs. The idea was to get rid of those schools that were set up solely to feed on federal funds and didn't provide the meaningful training students needed to get jobs and pay off their debt. As a result, during the 1990s more than 1,500 proprietary schools were either kicked out of the government's financial aid programs altogether or withdrew voluntarily. In an effort to rein in abusive recruiting tactics, in 1992 Congress also barred schools from compensating recruiters based on the number of students they brought in.

These changes shook up the industry. The old generation of trade schools gradually died off and were replaced by a new breed of for-profit colleges--mostly huge, publicly traded corporations. The largest, the Apollo Group, owns the University of Phoenix, which serves more than 400,000 students at some ninety campuses and 150 learning centers worldwide. Others include the Career Education Corporation, which serves 90,000 students at seventy-five campuses around the world, and Corinthian Colleges, which serves 69,000 students at more than 100 colleges in the United States and Canada.

Not only did these companies promise that their schools would be more responsive to the needs of students and employers than the previous generation, they also said they would be more accountable to the public because, as publicly traded companies, they were heavily regulated. "We've seen a fire across the prairie, and that fire has had a purifying effect," Omer Waddles, then the president of the Career College Association, told the Chronicle of Higher Education in 1997. "As our sector has weathered the storms of recent years, a stronger group of schools is emerging to carry, at a high level of credibility, the mantle of training and career development."

In reality, the new breed of schools had quite a bit in common with their predecessors; in some cases, they even operated out of the same buildings and employed the same personnel. What's more, rather than making them more accountable, the fact that they were publicly traded created a powerful incentive for them to game the system. After all, to keep their stock prices up and investors happy, the schools had to show that they were constantly expanding, which meant there was intense pressure to get students in the door and signed up for classes and financial aid.

Continue reading "Private schools, private loans, not all exclusive and elusive" »

September 8, 2009

Bernanke Saved The World ?

MSNBC: In hindsight was Paulson right? If Congress did not write that $700 billion check would banks have collapsed?

Warren: I have to say I think there would have been some real pain. There are some businesses today that are alive that would have been wiped out. However, I am just not convinced at all that we would have gone into a death spiral"

MSNBC: With the facts he knew at the time, was it the right call?

Warren: (struggling to be polite) "You know, let me say it this way. The question about whether or not the world as we know it has ended, depends on what you think the world is as we know it. If you think the world as we know it, are a handful of huge financial institutions, the dinosaurs that roamed the earth, then you're right. They are not going to exist without huge infusions of government money. On the other hand if what you really believe is that our economy and our world is 115 million American households you start to see it very differently. And you say, you know if the dinosaurs are gone there are still a lot of stuff to be done.

[Via Mish]

August 26, 2009

verdes Vadera, green shoots, he scores

The popularity of the term "green shoots" shows the kind of social epidemic underlying our changing thinking. The phrase was propelled in Britain by Shriti Vadera, the business minister, in January, and mutated into a more contagious form after Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, used it on "60 Minutes" on March 15.

The news media didn't need to change the term for different cultures around the world. With nothing more than a quick translation -- brotes verdes, pousses vertes, grüne Sprösslinge, etc. -- it is now recognized as a symbol of a revival coming soon.

All of this suggests that a social epidemic is supporting renewed confidence. This confidence can keep growing by contagion, as a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, and we may see the markets and the economy recover further.

Continue reading "verdes Vadera, green shoots, he scores" »

August 4, 2009

Who's who of banking, 2009

The traumatic upheaval that has roiled Wall Street during the past two years has produced - surprisingly quickly - a widely acknowledged new pecking order in the world of high finance: Goldman Sachs, in trading, and JPMorgan Chase, in banking, have become the undisputed industry leaders, with a hand in nearly every deal or trade. Clients can try to avoid these two, but only at their own peril.

The likes of Morgan Stanley, Barclays and Bank of America/Merrill Lynch - wounded but not fatally - continue to seek a firm footing on which to operate, while the so-called "zombie banks", such as Citigroup and Wells Fargo, remain on life support. Boutiques, such as Lazard, Greenhill, Rothschild, Evercore and Jefferies, that primarily provide advice to clients - and little capital - have been hiring broadly and have seen a resurgence of activity in their restructuring businesses, where a wave of recapitalisation and "amend and extend" deals have allowed many overleveraged companies to avoid bankruptcy filings. For the boutiques, the question remains whether, any time soon, there will be enough non-restructuring advisory business - formerly known as M&A - to justify all the new hiring.

But none of this is particularly surprising in the wake of the worst crisis to hit banking since the Great Depression produced the Glass-Steagall Act and the separation of investment banking from commercial banking.

What does seem to be spooking Wall Street these days, though, is the traction that some private equity firms, such as KKR and Apollo Advisors, and hedge funds, such as Citadel Investment Group, appear to be "backward integrating" into investment banking by building up their businesses that compete with Wall Street in the lucrative underwriting of debt and equity securities.

Continue reading "Who's who of banking, 2009" »

July 14, 2009

Prosper is back

Credit rating mapped to loss rate by score band using a credit model.

prosper_blog_lenders_rating2.jpg

Prosper comes back to life, with SEC filing.

June 18, 2009

Falkenstein finds alpha

Finding Alpha: The Search for Alpha When Risk and Return Break Down (Wiley Finance) by Eric Falkenstein (Hardcover - Jun 29, 2009) is anticipated and now available.

The typical Amazon new vs used arbitrage occurs. New $56, vs used $103.

falken_alpha_book_arbit.png

See previously Big Picture Barry Bailout Nation arbitrage.


April 17, 2009

Bernanke: 4 questions (and 4 answers) on economic crisis

Bernanke speaks:

1. How Did We Get Here? What caused our financial and economic system to break down to the extent it has?

2. What Is the Fed Doing to Address the Situation?

3. Does the Fed's Aggressive Response Risk Inflation Down the Road? Could the Fed's aggressive actions to stabilize the economy today lead to an inflation problem down the road?

4. Why Did the Fed and the Treasury Act to Prevent the Bankruptcy of Some Major Financial Firms? Why did the Fed and the Treasury act to prevent the bankruptcy of some major financial firms, such as the investment bank Bear Stearns and the insurance company American International Group, or AIG?

Continue reading "Bernanke: 4 questions (and 4 answers) on economic crisis" »

February 20, 2009

Hedge funds industry shrinks to under $ trillion

For years, managing a hedge fund, and making a fortune for yourself in the process, was the running dream on Wall Street. But now that industry, like much of finance, is withering. Many hedge fund investors are folding. Since last May, these funds' assets under management have dwindled to $964 billion from $1.4 trillion. The private equity business, one of the iconic businesses of the boom, is struggling with a deep slump of its own.

Most large banks have over $US 1 trillion assets under management.

Continue reading "Hedge funds industry shrinks to under $ trillion " »

January 17, 2009

On nationalizing banks

I think it's wise to be wary of nationalization. It should be a last resort, and I've gotten a sense recently that a lot of people are talking about it awfully casually. Still, it's true that there are some benefits to nationalization, and one of them is that it allows us to avoid the problem of valuing and buying up toxic assets from troubled banks. If the government owns the whole bank, then the bad stuff can be easily hived off without any kind of valuation at all, and then left to sit for a while before it's sold off.

-- Kevin Drum

and gets comments like

First, from the perspective of national goals, the American financial and banking system has been a dismal failure, with real industries, most particularly capital goods, and public infrastructure, STARVED for funds for almost three decades now. Instead, the financial and banking system has supported ever increasing debt, and ever more complex derivatives based on that debt, none of which has done an iota of good for the real economy.

-- Tony Wikrent


The best way for the government to avoid the obvious outcome in such a situation is for the government to take over and run the bank: nationalization. Since the government has an interest in protecting its own liabilities, rather than maximizing shareholder value, the chances of crazy gambles will be minimized. In any case, since the government is taking virtually unlimited downside, it should by rights have all the upside as well -- i.e., ownership.

-- Felix Salmon

and gets some smart comments (David Merkel)

Debt-for equity cramdowns may not work in some cases because at larger banks the debt is usually at the holding company, and the bad assets are at the operating banks subsidiary. Better for the FDIC to force some sort of compromise where the operating subsidiary is made whole, while forcing holders of securities in the holding company (common, preferred, sub debt, sen debt) to face an uncertain future, while the healthy bank subsidiaries continue to operate.


Our biggest banks would identify their bad loans and foolish investments. And they would then pay a fee to a new state-backed insurer to protect themselves from losses over a certain level on these stinky assets.
But the banks would retain these bad assets on their balance sheets. They would not be transferred to a new toxic bank. We as taxpayers wouldn't own the stinky loans - though we would be liable for losses on them over a certain level
.

-- Robert Peston


Finally, Eugene F. Fama has the clearest mind:

The FDIC may simply shut the failed bank, auction its assets, and use the proceeds to pay off depositors and other liability holders in order of priority. If the market value of the failed bank's assets is less than its insured deposits, the FDIC supplements the bank's assets to pay off the insured deposits. If the FDIC charges appropriate premiums for deposit insurance, the insurance is a fair game and does not produce losses for taxpayers, at least on average.

There are many variants of FDIC intervention, but they typically have one common property. They solve the debt overhang problem. Non-insured debtors are paid off only to the extent that the market value of the assets of a failed bank exceeds its insured deposit liabilities. This means that any new equity capital injected after the reorganization increases the market value of assets and the market value of equity capital dollar for dollar.

Continue reading "On nationalizing banks" »

December 18, 2008

Short selling saves companies

If you were doing business with Morgan Stanley, your ability to short the stock was a hedge. Say there had been a short-sale ban, or an uptick rule making it hard to short What else might you have done? Well, you might have severed your relationship with Morgan Stanley even faster, accelerating the run on the bank. Or you might have bid up CDS to even more dizzying heights. Or you might have stopped writing Morgan Stanley CDS, prompting others to de-risk in some other fashion.

-- James Surowiecki

Continue reading "Short selling saves companies" »

December 6, 2008

Tracking Stocks

Valued as a spinoff, but not operated as a spinoff ?

As financial innovations go, tracking stocks have been a bust for a decade and a half. Consider this: From 1984 to 1999, underwriters brought an average of more than 50 equity carve-outs to the Street each year. During that same time period, investment bankers launched a grand total of 23 trackers. That's it.

In a perfect world, things would have stayed that way. In our world, tracking stocks are suddenly popular. This is particularly true at old-economy companies, where managers now seem intent on setting up their new-economy operations as separately valued -- but not truly separate -- businesses. Credit Suisse First Boston, for one, has CSFBdirect for its online brokerage. Sprint has Sprint PCS, which is tied to its wireless business.

Posted in Investing and finance.

Continue reading "Tracking Stocks" »

November 30, 2008

Bear Stearns' Building

Bear Stearns: When was the building at 383 Madison Avenue at 47th worth more than the banking firm ?

bear_stearns_madison.png

See also: Value of GM vs value of GM building.

Continue reading "Bear Stearns' Building" »

November 28, 2008

Credit Card Growth

As a banker, let me describe what we do wrong when we accept and review an application for a credit card. First, we don't verify income. The first 'C' of credit: Capacity to repay, is completely ignored by the banks, just as it was in when they approved subprime mortgages. Then we ask for "household income" -- as if other parties in the household could be held responsible for that debt. They cannot. And since we don't ask for any proof of income, the customer can throw out any number they think will work for them. Then we ask if they rent or own and how much they pay. If their name is not on the mortgage, they can state zero. If they pay $1,000 in rent, they can say $500. (Years ago we asked for a copy of the lease to verify this number.) And finally, we don't ask how much of a credit line the consumer is looking for. The banker can't even put that amount into the system. There isn't any place on the application for that information. We simply put unverified information into a mindless computer and the computer gets the person's credit score and grants them the biggest line that score and income (ha!) qualifies for.


Joe Nocera finds the Tanta of credit cards.

November 18, 2008

Value of GM

The company: $ 1.7 Billion market capitalization.

gm_mkt_cap_1.7.png

The building: $ 2.9 Billion

gm_bld_2.9.png

November 12, 2008

Bush in 1978: before playing country cowboy

"Kent Hance was a down-home boy, real homey, and George W. wasn't homey like Kent," recalled Johnnye Davis, a Republican leader in Odessa. "He didn't come across to the voters as well as Kent did, with the little jokes that Kent told."

While Mr. Bush now is sometimes mocked for an ignorance of policy details, back then people thought he had the opposite problem: a tendency to drop references in his speeches that baffled audiences, like a discussion of anti-inflationary economic policy.

"He was quick, a bit too quick, so that people didn't always get it," Mrs. Davis said. "He was so darn intelligent that a lot of what he said went over people's heads. He's learned to explain things a little better since then."

Another problem was that while Mr. Bush never really had a clear campaign strategy, Mr. Hance did: he focused his campaign on emphasizing local ties and on casting Mr. Bush as a carpet-bagger from the East. One of Mr. Hance's most effective radio spots was this one, read by an announcer:

"In 1961, when Kent Hance graduated from Dimmitt High School in the 19th congressional district, his opponent George W. Bush was attending Andover Academy in Massachusetts. In 1965, when Kent Hance graduated from Texas Tech, his opponent was at Yale University. And while Kent Hance graduated from University of Texas Law School, his opponent" -- the announcer's voice plunged -- "get this, folks, was attending Harvard. We don't need someone from the Northeast telling us what our problems are."

Continue reading "Bush in 1978: before playing country cowboy" »

October 21, 2008

Mortgage meltdown diagnoses

In 2006, the question was the canary in the coal mine question, 'Will the subprime mortgage industry meltdown, and would the meltdown spill over to other financial sectors ? '

In 2007, the question became, 'What started the meltdown ?'. Chris Whalen has an excellent summary of what we know in autumn 2007.

Continue reading "Mortgage meltdown diagnoses" »

August 30, 2008

Level 1, 2, 3: for sale on the market ?

For securities, this brings us to the three categories of investments; Levels 1, 2 and 3. Here's a guide:

Current Name; Level 1
Prior Name; Trading Securities
English Translation; We're selling now
Valuation (exit); Market value, probably on an exchange

Current Name; Level 2
Prior Name; Available for Sale
English Translation; We're selling if the price is right
Valuation; Market value, preferably on an exchange

Current Name; Level 3
Prior Name; Held to Maturity
English Translation; We're not selling
Valuation; Cost, unless the loss is "other than temporary".

Do you see a trend in valuations? It's ALL exit value. It's all based on intent. The reason we don't time value discount Level 1 and 2 securities is because the cash conversion is projected to happen now (or soon enough).

Continue reading "Level 1, 2, 3: for sale on the market ?" »

August 15, 2008

Index Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), etfconnect

ETF Connect reports on exchange traded funds.

Index Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Closed-End ETFs (CEFs) feature
intra-day trading and stock exchange listing. They rapidly are changing
the way many financial advisors and investors manage their portfolios.

Index ETFs, including SPDRs, Diamonds and HOLDRS.
Closed-End ETFs, including municipal bond and country funds.

August 3, 2008

Bronte Capital / John Hempton, on Wachovia

Bronte Capital on Wachovia's quest for deposits and on WaMu 'this is not a credit driven crisis. It's a funding driven crisis'.

August 2, 2008

Aleph / David Merkel on covered bonds

Aleph blog explains covered bonds, proposed to save the mortgage market.

It is not a passthrough, it is a bond. The covered bond buyers do not receive the principal and interest from the security held by the bank, the bank receives it. The covered bondholder (in absence of default) receives timely payment of interest at the stated rate, and principal at maturity. Only in default does the value of the security for collateral matter. If the collateral is insufficient to pay off principal and interest, the covered bondholders are general creditors for the difference.

July 6, 2008

FDIC bank data of loans secured by real estate

The RC-C section in a FDIC CALL report shows loans secured by
real estate. Manually add up the various detail lines in RC-C,
subheading 1, to get the totals.


Total Assets - $2.118B
(RC-C.1) Loans secured by real estate $1.360B ( 64.2% )

Where does one get the RC-C.1 data?

Each bank submits CALL data to the FDIC on a quarterly basis.
The data usually becomes available 15-30 days after the quarter
ends.

Search for banks and download/view as PDF data at the FDIC
Institution Directory
.

[Via CR/Comments]

October 11, 2007

Interest Rate Monitor, bond glossary, BEEM, REMIC

Interest Rate Risk Monitor by James Baker
obsesses about bonds and interest rates.

And from the bond glossary:

Bond-Equivalent Effective Margin (BEEM): The average spread of an adjustable
rate security over the underlying index for the life of the instrument.
BEEM assumes the index remains constant and the coupon of the security
completely resets to the index over time, taking into account all caps, collars
and floors.


REMIC (Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit): A tax treatment introduced
by the 1986 Tax Reform Act for multi-class mortgage-backed securities such
as CMOs, Strips and senior/subordinated pass-throughs. An objective of the
REMIC legislation was to permit issuers to assume a more streamlined legal
form than that of the owners trust under which most CMOs had previously
been issued. Issuers have the option to elect REMIC tax treatment until 1992,
when REMIC tax treatment becomes mandatory. REMIC treatment identifies
the securities created as one or more "regular" interests and a single "residual"
interest. In market parlance, the term REMIC is used to refer to a structured
mortgage-backed security electing REMIC status. More loosely, it is used
interchangeably with CMO.

September 24, 2007

Christopher Whalen

Chris Whalen @ PRMIA, (archives).

Example:
There is nothing you can do to "fix" a CDO, to make it liquid,
other than to standardize the terms and trade it on an exchange.
The liquidity gridlock prevailing in the secondary market for CDOs
is the normal situation for such unique and entirely opaque
instruments, whereas the past illusion of liquidity was abnormal,
a byproduct of the "irrational exuberance" described by Greenspan
himself. Buy Side investors accepted the fallacy of liquidity -- until
they asked the Sell Side dealers to bid on the paper. That's when
the current trouble really began.

Continue reading "Christopher Whalen" »

August 15, 2007

Lending money: stringency and accommodation

The history is that lenders move in great caravans between two
extreme points, which we can call stringency and accommodation.

-- James Grant, the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

Continue reading "Lending money: stringency and accommodation" »

July 5, 2007

CapitalIQ

capitaliq corporate data: credit review.

June 1, 2007

Epicurean Dealmaker

epicureandealmaker on fat tails.
Derivatives: Transfering risk or reducing risk ?

May 30, 2007

Interest-rate term-structure pricing models: Riccardo Rebonato

Review Paper. Interest-rate term-structure pricing models: a review
Riccardo Rebonato

Interest-rate term structure modelling from the early short-rate-based
models to the current developments; use models for pricing complex
derivatives or for relative-value option trading. Therefore, relative-pricing
models are given a greater emphasis than equilibrium models.

The current state of modelling owes a lot to how models have
historically developed in the industry, and stresses the importance
of 'technological' developments (such as faster computers or more
efficient Monte Carlo techniques) in guiding the direction of theoretical
research.

The importance of the joint practices of vega hedging and daily
model-recalibration is analysed in detail. The relevance of market
incompleteness and of the possible informational inefficiency of
derivatives markets for calibration and pricing is also discussed.

Continue reading "Interest-rate term-structure pricing models: Riccardo Rebonato" »

May 24, 2007

Accrued Interest

Accrued Interest aka accruedint, smart about finance and economics.
Why Home Depot should borrow more.

April 9, 2007

Way of the Turtle

Way of The Turtle, by Curtis Faith.

Relatively simple trading systems can provide a
tradable edge, but it is psychologically difficult
for traders to follow these systems and exploit
that edge.

Recommended via Traderfeed Brett and Abnornal.

February 15, 2007

Prosper lending community

Prosper now enjoys some powerfu tools.

regression analysis forum
adverse selection says avoid the high rate borrowers.
Money Walks journal of patterns in data, performance.

Erics great survey or lenders: oustandings, return

Prosper Analytics animated charts, not quite chart junk. ROI.

P2P conventional loan analytics.

Prosper's own loan performance database.

February 14, 2007

The Politico

The Politico tracks Washington-centric partisan politics,
by ex-Washington Post staffers at Capitol Leader.

February 13, 2007

Housing Prices could go down, down,

it would seem that a sequence of price declines continuing for
many years has some substantial probability of happening.

Traditional finance theory has trouble reconciling even a semi-predictable
sequence of price declines with basic notions of market efficiency. The
situation we are facing is a reminder of the glaring inefficiencies and
incompleteness of existing markets for residential real estate, and
may be regarded as evidence that institutional changes will be coming
in future years to fundamentally change the nature of these markets.

Things That Go Boom
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
February 8, 2007; Page A15

January 15, 2007

All About Alpha

AllAboutAlpha, example:
value premium, value pricing.

return = alpha + beta * (market return)

January 8, 2007

Housing Derivatives

Housingderivatives tracks futures and options in housing prices.

December 15, 2006

Moody's Commercial Mortgage Metrics (Moody's CMM)

Moody's Commercial Mortgage Metrics (Moody's CMM)

TWC/CMM

Commercial Mortgage Metrics from Moody’s and TWR,
the leading source for commercial real estate performance
and valuation forecasting.

Risk Measures provided by CMM:

Probability of Default,
Loss Given Default,
Expected Loss,
Value at Risk,
Yield Degradation,
Risk Adjusted Yield,
Distance to Default.

December 14, 2006

Anatomy of mortgage prepayments, Hayre L.S., Chaudary S. et

Hayre L.S., Chaudary S. et Young R.A. : "Anatomy of prepayments",
Journal of Fixed Income, 10, 2000. [PDF]
The paper is actually in chapter 4 of Hayre's book:
SSB's guide to MBS and ABS.

October 30, 2006

Tranched mortgage pools

The fun is tranching pools of mortgages into different securities.
You take a package of mortgages, preferably from different areas
of the country, and then you create different tranches with
different credit qualities, and then one zero coupon that bears
all the residual risk.

The first tranch, naturally, gets all the guarenteed income stream
(mortgage payments) and bears *no* (or actaully, very little)
prepayment risk (it is good to maturity).

The next tranch gets income stream, and bears some prepayment
risk (if there are a lot of prepayments, it gets a swath if the other
tranches are fully repaid), and on down the line.

The last tranch before the zero gets income, but bears risk
if the income falls short (mortgages default), and also bears
*the most* risk for prepayment (it has a call option owned
by the mortgage holders, they can repay the loan if the
interest rate changes). If you own this last tranch, you have
lots of duration and gamma risk, whereas if you own the
first tranch you have a very different profile.

The 'residual zero' tranch is practically binary.

Either it pays off, or it defaults and gets the (last) bit of
recovery value in liquidation. Lots of folks use equity
models to calculate expected return on these.

Freddie and Fannie do this, but also Morgan Stanley and Goldman.
If you want to play, you can call them and they can cobble toghether
a structured deal that will match pretty much any flavor you want.
Some of their customers are developers who are highly exposed
to one geographic area (say, Toll Brothers) and need hedging.

A good intro book is Collateralized Mortgage Obligations
by Chuck Ramsey and Frank Fabozzi
. It goes beyond CMOs and
talks about a lot of the risk horizons and what traders of these
do and play with. Lots of former interest rate traders apparently
do well in this field.


As far as point three: you are talking 'real options' theory here,
and you have to look for a lot of asset value delta to overcome
the (identified) barriers to exit and entry and transactions costs.
I have yet to see a good book on the real options of real estate,
but the ones that come close deal with mineral rights and land
and mostly were developed for energy exploration. Not really
'commercial' or 'residential' real options.

Continue reading "Tranched mortgage pools" »

October 9, 2006

Interest rates, what moves mortgage rates?

So what moves mortgage rates ? Supply. Demand.
Competition for money. Inflation. The Economy.
Expectations. And you, of course.

October 2, 2006

All about Alpha

allaboutalpha, another investment and finance strategy journal
where Alpha Male opines about portabe alpha.

September 27, 2006

Financial Rounds

financialrounds, an east coast finance
Professor.

Example: Scams.

May 3, 2006

Eastern Finance Association

Financial Rounds recommends Eastern Finance Association's
Meetings.

April 7, 2006

Carried Interest

Carried Interest examines PIPE: private investment in public equity.

A PIPE is an alternative available to publicly traded companies that
need to raise money but don't want to go through the complexity
of selling shares through a secondary offering. Instead, the company
finds an investor and sells him a block of newly issued shares at an
agreed price or a block of debt which can later be converted into
shares (a structured PIPE).

September 25, 2005

The Greenspan Put

Tightening aimed (indirectly, of course!) at asset bubbles will be
reversed, big time, if and when those bubbles pop.

This is the Greenspan Put !

-- Paul McCulley.

Continue reading "The Greenspan Put" »

September 12, 2005

Seeking Alpha

Seeking Alpha neatly ontologized money science into

* Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
* Market Commentary
* China Investing
* Media Investing
* Digital Media Investing
* Stock Market Blogs
* Economics Blogs
* Venture Capital Blogs
* Personal Finance Blogs

and brings me Herb Morgan, Chief Investment Officer of Efficient Market
Advisors, on The Problem With Vanguard ETFs.

September 1, 2005

LIBOR rate history

LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) is based on rates that
contributor banks in London offer each other for inter-bank
deposits.

From a bank's perspective, deposits are simply funds that are
loaned to them. So in effect, a LIBOR is a rate at which a
fellow London bank can borrow money from other banks. Rate
calculations incorporate variables such as time, maturity
and currency rates. There are hundreds of LIBOR rates reported
each month in numerous currencies.

Examples: the 1 Year LIBOR as published monthly by Fannie
Mae: rate history.

August 26, 2005

Macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve

Macroeconomic variables besides inflation and real activity drive the
yield curve in the framework of no-arbitrage affine term structure
models. We construct model-based projection of all the latent factors
onto the observable macro factors, which are real activity and
inflation.

As a result, the factors are decomposed into the “macro” part: a
linear function of the macro variables and their lags; and the truly
novel part which is orthogonal to the entire history of the macro
variables. We are able to relate the unexplained part of the short
rate to such measures of liquidity as the AAA credit spread and MZM
growth rate. The unexplained part of the slope is highly correlated
with the budget deficit.

Continue reading "Macroeconomic determinants of the yield curve" »

August 15, 2005

Financial Rounds: Academics argue gently

Financial Rounds on how to argue gently *.

See also Suzette Haden Elgin ...

FR visits the FMA and finds another golden oldie: NotN.

Continue reading "Financial Rounds: Academics argue gently" »

August 8, 2005

edhec-risk hedge fund research

Buy a fund of funds or a hedge fund index ?
Measure risk with more than Sharpe ratio and multi-factor models.

edhec-risk reports research on investment alternatives.
Indexes and benchmarking
Multi-style multi-class risk allocation
Style and Performance analysis.

With very Germanic style:


Unique Access to all Information

Edhec-risk.com offers a unique access to all information appearing in
the different sections and archives. The information is accessed using
a search engine which generates both the key words and the content of
available documents. All the information available on the site is
accessible in relation to the key themes that correspond to the
Centre’s research programmes.

Continue reading "edhec-risk hedge fund research" »

July 26, 2005

Moodys KMV 2005 Credit Risk Research

Moodys KMV 2005 papers.

May 27, 2005

Hedge fund history

Conceived in 1949 by Alfred Winslow Jones, then an editor at Fortune
magazine, a hedge fund hedged its bets by taking "long" positions on
undervalued stock and "short" positions on overvalued stocks. The idea
was to be smart and nimble and bold, and to make oversized returns.

In the last decade, however, hedge fund companies have started to
resemble mutual fund companies: big, plodding institutions for
pensioners. Fewer and fewer hedge funds are now making impressive
returns for their investors. In the 10 years through April 1995,
according to the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, the typical
hedge fund has only just managed to beat the S.& P. 500 Index, with
an average annual return of 11.97 percent compared with 10.26 percent
for the S.& P. 500. In other words, the Wild West has become a
suburban community, where managers ride golf carts instead of bucking
broncos.

What happened? For one thing, the amount of money invested in hedge
funds has doubled in the last five years, to $1 trillion. It's hard to
find creative places to park that much money. Besides, no special
skills are needed to create a hedge fund - that's why everyone and his
uncle know somebody who's starting one. Investors are partly to blame.
They love the glamour of investing in hedge funds, but, at the same
time, they can't tolerate risk. Most investors can't tolerate even a
month of losses.

The real problem with hedge funds may be the managers themselves:
they're earning too much money. It's almost vulgar. In the past, hedge
funds were paid 1 percent of assets under management, plus 20 percent
of that year's return. Recently, even as their performance has sagged,
more and more hedge funds have increased their fees to 2 percent of
assets under management - plus 20 percent of returns. To make big
money for themselves, hedge fund managers don't have to make big
returns; they just need to hold on to their pool of clients.

Continue reading "Hedge fund history" »

May 10, 2005

Risk Glossary by Glyn Holton

Glyn Holton's Risk Glossary explains common terms such as capital asset
pricing model (CAPM)
.

April 21, 2005

VIX: trade implied volatility

One of the most interesting ways to trade implied volatility (long)
is to buy forward starting out of the money calls on S&P500. At some
shops you can get decent pricing and better deal than the vol swap
market offers.

Since the option is forward starting it does not have any time decay
until the strike is set at a "strike date". At strike date the option
turns into a regular european call, which you can sell or dynamically
manage.

This strategy works like a call on volatility in the sense that vega
is convex. The skew and liquidity is a risk factor so I wouldn't got
that far out of the money.

Continue reading "VIX: trade implied volatility" »

April 18, 2005

Trade the VIX

Can you trade the VIX ?

Chart: VIX vs SPY ?

CBOE micro site on the vix.

Continue reading "Trade the VIX" »

March 28, 2005

Hedge funds bubble ?

In a way, hedge funds are to mutual funds what Evel Knievel was to
weekend motorcyclists. Unlike mutual funds, which are restricted in the
ways they can invest, hedge funds can use leverage, trade derivatives
and bet that stocks will fall, a technique called shorting. And unlike
mutual funds, which generally try to beat a market average, hedge funds
seek positive returns, even in down markets.

In 2003, the 25 highest-paid hedge fund managers earned more than $200
million, on average, according to a survey by Institutional Investor
magazine. The top-ranked manager, George Soros, took home $750 million
that year. At No. 2 was David Tepper, manager of the $3 billion
Appaloosa funds, who earned $510 million, according to the magazine.

Continue reading "Hedge funds bubble ?" »

March 27, 2005

Riskmetrics journals

Riskmetrics journals and old (1999-2002) Working Papers.

March 26, 2005

Torto Wheaton Research (TWR)

Torto Wheaton Research (TWR) studies commercial real estate.
Their Debt Risk Management has a nice list of features. See also
Portfolio strategy and misc research desk.

Continue reading "Torto Wheaton Research (TWR)" »

March 24, 2005

PRMIA guide

PRMIA guide [PDF] prepares you for the Professional Risk Manager (PRM) exam.

March 23, 2005

Hedge Week

Hedge Week newsletter. See also Hedgefund News.

March 21, 2005

IAFE: International Association of Financial Engineers

IAFE: International Association of Financial Engineers

The IAFE is the professional society dedicated to fostering the
profession of quantitative finance by providing platforms for the
discussion of cutting-edge and pivotal issues in the field. Founded in
1992, the IAFE is composed of individual academics and practitioners
from banks, broker dealers, hedge funds, pension funds, asset
management firms, technology firms, regulatory bodies, accounting,
consulting and law firms, and universities across the globe. Through
frank discussions of current policy issues, hosting programs to
educate the finance community, and recognizing the outstanding
achievements in the field, the IAFE acts as a beacon for the
development of quantitative finance.

Throughout its history, the IAFE's pre-eminent leadership has
positioned us to respond with savvy to the evolving needs of the
financial engineering community. The IAFE's programs – from our
area-specific committees to our evening forums to the Financial
Engineer of the Year Award – are designed to provide our membership
with uniquely valuable activities to enhance their work in the field.

March 16, 2005

What is Financial Engineering ?

What is Financial Engineering ?

Financial engineering involves the development and creative
application of financial theory and financial instruments to structure
solutions to complex financial problems and to exploit financial
opportunities. Financial engineering is not a tool. It is a profession
that uses tools, of which derivatives are one. Importantly, financial
engineering differs from financial analysis. The term “analysis” means
to “decompose in order to understand.” The term “engineering” means to
“build.”

March 14, 2005

Financial Engineering (Today)

Financial Engineering Today newletter.

Money words

Money words investing and finance glossary.
Example: Bulge Bracket

March 11, 2005

Validating Default Probabilities on Short Time Series

Two approaches to examine the accuracy of default probability forecasts
for different rating grades and in particular, the respective
advantages and disadvantages of the two methods. Also, the effect of
independence assumptions is taken into account by modelling latent
variables like the asset correlation and dependency in time. Both
tests, the Extended Traffic Light Approach as well as an ad hoc normal
test work on time-varying default probability forecasts. They are
considered with respect to their practical use and potential
application in validating default forecasts in credit institutions.

Continue reading "Validating Default Probabilities on Short Time Series" »

March 9, 2005

Credit Risk Modeling and Valuation: An Introduction

Credit risk is the distribution of financial losses due to unexpected
changes in the credit quality of a counterparty in a financial
agreement. Structural, reduced form and incomplete information
estimate joint default probabilities and prices of credit sensitive
securities.

Continue reading "Credit Risk Modeling and Valuation: An Introduction" »

March 5, 2005

Economic and Regulatory Capital What is the Difference ?

The determinants of regulatory capital (the minimum required by
regulation) and economic capital (the capital that shareholders would
choose in absence of regulation) in the context of the single risk
factor model that underlies the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II)
do not depend on the same set of variables and do not react in the
same way to changes in their common determinants.

For plausible parameter values, they are both increasing in the
loans’ probability of default and loss given default, but variables
that affect economic but not regulatory capital, such as the
intermediation margin and the cost of capital, can move them
significantly apart. The results also show that market discipline,
proxied by the coverage of deposit insurance, increases economic
capital, although the effect is generally small.

Continue reading "Economic and Regulatory Capital What is the Difference ?" »

March 2, 2005

Interest rate modelling, Brigo, Mercurio, Pelsser.


Interest rate modelling for practical implication: Interest Rate Models by Damiano Brigo and Fabio Mercurio. Brigo_Mercurio.jpg

For a clear and conicse treatment we also suggest you Antoon Pelsser's Efficient Methods for Valuing Interest Rate Derivatives which is extremely interesting.

Pelsser.jpg

March 1, 2005

Institutional Investor

Institutional Investor tracks Real Estate Finance and Investment.

January 31, 2005

Basel default

Probability of Default (PD)
- the probability that a specific customer will default
within the next 12 months.

Loss Given Default (LGD)
- the percentage of each credit facility that will be lost
if the customer defaults.

Exposure at Default (EAD)
- the expected exposure for each credit facility in the
event of a default.

Continue reading "Basel default" »

January 30, 2005

401k planning

401k planning contributions and investing for retirement: now.

January 29, 2005

How Ratings Agencies Achieve Rating Stability

Surveys on the use of agency credit ratings reveal that some
investors believe that rating agencies are relatively slow in
adjusting their ratings. A well-accepted explanation for this
perception on the timeliness of ratings is the "through-the-cycle"
methodology that agencies use. According to Moody's, through-the-cycle
ratings are stable because they are intended to measure the risk of
default risk over long investment horizons, and because they are
changed only when agencies are confident that observed changes in a
company's risk profile are likely to be permanent. To verify this
explanation, we quantify the impact of the long-term default horizon
and the prudent migration policy on rating stability from the
perspective of an investor - with no desire for rating stability. This
is done by benchmarking agency ratings with a financial ratio-based
(credit scoring) agency-rating prediction model and (credit scoring)
default-prediction models of various time horizons. We also examine
rating migration practices. Final result is a better quantitative
understanding of the through-the-cycle methodology.

By varying the time horizon in the estimation of default-prediction
models, we search for a best match with the agency-rating prediction
model. Consistent with the agencies' stated objectives, we conclude
that agency ratings are focused on the long term. In contrast to
one-year default prediction models, agency ratings place less weight
on short-term indicators of credit quality.

We also demonstrate that the focus of agencies on long investment
horizons explains only part of the relative stability of agency
ratings. The other aspect of through-the-cycle rating methodology -
agency rating-migration policy - is an even more important factor
underlying the stability of agency ratings. We find that rating
migrations are triggered when the difference between the actual agency
rating and the model predicted rating exceeds a certain threshold
level. When rating migrations are triggered, agencies adjust their
ratings only partially, consistent with the known serial dependency of
agency rating migrations.

Continue reading "How Ratings Agencies Achieve Rating Stability" »

January 27, 2005

Discount Factor for Estimating Economic LGD

Banks must measure the loss arising from counterparty default in order
to achieve Advanced-IRB compliance under the proposed Basel II minimum
regulatory capital framework. Which discount rate to use on cash
received post-default is a question that is the subject of
considerable disagreement amongst practitioners and banking
supervisors. We review alternative extant proposals and develop a new
method for choosing an appropriate discount rate contingent upon the
risk of the recovery cash flow. An example of how supervisory
determined LGD discount rates could be set is demonstrated.
Empirically, the required rate of return on defaulted corporate bonds
is shown to be similar in magnitude to the yield on BB rated debt. For
defaulted small and medium enterprise (SME) bank loans, the mean
discount rate is found to be similar, on average to the contract rate
pertaining at the time of default.

Continue reading "Discount Factor for Estimating Economic LGD" »

January 25, 2005

ETF

ETFs are shares of a basket of stocks bought and sold as a single
investment. Investment companies create these stocks by buying the
underlying stocks and issuing ETF shares. Unlike mutual funds whose
price is set once per day, ETFs trade on stock exchanges at
constantly changing market prices. This prevents market timers
getting preferential prices like the recent mutual fund scandals.
Very large investors can issue new shares or redeem their shares for
the underlying stocks. This keeps the ETF price close in price to the
underlying shares. ETFs do not trade at sizable discounts or
surpluses to the underlying stocks like closed end mutual funds. If
the ETFs begin to trade with any significant discount or surplus,
large investors will issue new shares or redeem their shares to
eliminate the discount or surplus.

Continue reading "ETF" »

January 20, 2005

Global Forex Trading

Global Forex Trading offers DealBook® FX 2 'powerful online
currency trading' tool that provides you with instant access
to the forex market.

January 6, 2005

PRMIA's risk news

PRMIA's risk news.

Week In Risk is published every Friday by Risk Communications.
It is (was ?) distributed by PRMIA, the Professional Risk Managers
International Association.

January 5, 2005

Market-generated forecasts are typically accurate

Prediction Markets

We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate
disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future
events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we
show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate,
and that they outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks.

Carefully designed contracts can yield insight into the market's
expectations about probabilities, means and medians, and also
uncertainty about these parameters. Moreover, conditional markets can
effectively reveal the market's beliefs about regression coefficients,
although we still have the usual problem of disentangling correlation
from causation. We discuss a number of market design issues and
highlight domains in which prediction markets are most likely to be
useful.

Justin Wolfers (Stanford University)

Continue reading "Market-generated forecasts are typically accurate" »

January 4, 2005

Credit Spread determined by a single common variable

Understanding Credit Spread Markets

I describe results of empirical studies of historical spreads in the
corporate bond market and show how spread changes, regardless of
credit rating, are largely determined by a single common variable. In
addition, I calculate the component of corporate credit spreads due to
default probability and report analyses of the residual spreads as
functions of credit quality and duration.

Analysis of spread changes for other spread markets (e.g.
asset-backeds, emerging markets, etc.) reveal a large, but smaller,
degree of spread co-movement across sectors and indicate that sector
spreads trend and mean revert on roughly similar time scales. That is,
spread changes trend in the short term (under two years) and
mean-revert over longer periods.

That information, along with the CAPM and our strategists' monthly
outlooks, was used to construct a cross-sector asset allocation model
that consistently outperformed a benchmark portfolio in ten years of
out-of-sample testing.

Terry Benzschawel (Citigroup Global Markets)

Continue reading "Credit Spread determined by a single common variable" »

January 3, 2005

FIASI: Fixed Income Analysts Society

Fixed Income Analysts Society (FIASI) director bios.

January 1, 2005

Credit scoring overdose

As the director of risk analysis for the Office of the Comptroller of
the Currency, Jeffrey Brown spends most of his time reviewing how
banks use credit scoring and other risk-management tools. [1]

Credit scoring has revolutionized lending, but critics worry
institutions are pushing this technology beyond its limits.

December 30, 2004

ETF exchange traded funds

Probably the biggest eye-catcher is iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25
Index Fund (FXI) — the first ETF investing solely in China
available to U.S. investors. Launched earlier this month,
the ETF tracks the 25 largest and most liquid Chinese stocks.
Of course, there's increasing talk of China's red-hot economy
cooling, but few expect the growth spigot to be shut entirely.
The China 25 Index Fund's expense ratio of 0.74% is higher
than that of most ETFs, but it's substantially lower than the
average China-region mutual fund's expense ratio of 2.37%,
according to Lipper. ETFs, by nature, carry lower expense ratios
than their mutual-fund counterparts. [1]

Standard and Poors index tracker.

Continue reading "ETF exchange traded funds" »

December 27, 2004

Foreign Exchange Currency news

FX FXStreet Foreign Exchange Currency news on trading and trends.

December 26, 2004

VIX Volatility Index


VIX Volatility Index
tools.

The VIX takes the weighted average of implied volatility for the
Standard and Poor's 100 Index (OEX calls and puts) and measures the
volatility of the market. A low VIX indicates trader confidence. A
high Vix the opposite. Dividing the S&P 500 by the Vix (ratio) gives
the confidence level in relation to the market. The higher the ratio
the higher the confidence.

StockCharts

Continue reading "VIX Volatility Index" »

December 19, 2004

CFA mastery

How much do you need to know to pass the CFA ? Here is some
advice for Chartered Financial Analyst aspirants.

They do not mean - have a general idea or sense of the material
or be able to pick the concept out of a lineup based on your
initial impression or cued recall
.

They do mean Very quickly, relative to similar concepts and
formulas, distingush and differentiate the key concepts, recall
the special exceptions or impacts that the concept had on other
concepts, be able to calculate forward and back into or out of
the relevant formula, and finally (the test taking part) be able
to quickly pick out the imbedded error or limiting factor in each
the accompanying 'wrong' answers among the choices presented so
that you can pick that which is least or most likely to conform
to the issue or question presented.

See also CFA, FRM communities.

Continue reading "CFA mastery" »

December 15, 2004

FRM, CFA exam communities

Post exam gossip is taken to a new level when people around the
world share a common exam, and share it on web forums. Let the
CFA candidates second guess until exam results are posted.

Continue reading "FRM, CFA exam communities" »

December 13, 2004

Hedgefund news.

Hedgefund.net has hedgefund news. See also
Hedge-Fund Manager vs Investment Bankers in the
New York Wiki and Hedge Week.

December 12, 2004

ROC Dominant Score Cutoff Strategies

Dominant Score Cutoff Strategies

The purpose of this research is to develop new results for

(1) the equivalence of statistical, business and economic
dominance in risk scoring,

(2) dominant risk scoring strategies in the presence of
non-dominant scores, and

(3) the effect of Bayesian score combination on dominant
risk scoring strategies.

One can show that there is ROC dominance if and only if there
is dominance of expected profits or efficient frontiers that
involve different business measures such as profit/volume
tradeoffs. If there is no such dominance, an intersection of
the ROC curves for two different scores nevertheless yields
a dominant strategy for use of the different scorecards and
the cutoffs. Finally, we show that a Bayesian combination of
the two scores leads to a dominant ROC curve with a single
dominant strategy.

*.

Financial Engineering Research Group at UVa

November 24, 2004

PRMIA Member Survey 2004

Professional Risk Managers International Association (PRMIA)'s Member
Survey 2004
.

November 16, 2004

Mathematica 5.1

Mathematica 5.1 is coming real soon.

ArrayPlot for flexible large-scale array visualization.
Integrates over regions:

* Regions defined by multivariate polynomial inequalities
* Problems over transcendental regions (where solvable)
* Integrable regions involving infinite ranges
* Undefined parameters in the region specification (solutions are
generated for all possible values)

EquationTrekker explores and interacting with the solutions of ordinary
differential equations (ODEs) is included with Mathematica 5.1.
Among other capabilities, it provides an easy way to investigate
dynamical systems properties, phase spaces, and Poincaré sections.

See also comp.soft-sys.math.mathematica Mathematica
newsgroup at googlegroups.