October 14, 2007
September 29, 2007
Transitive efrons dice
Efrons Dice are like Rock Paper Scissors
for the expected utility theorist.
September 23, 2007
Several comments have criticized Krugman
Several comments have criticized Krugman for shifting his position,
but I think what has shifted is the second part. He still knows all the
models, and the models he prefers still work as well as ever. But as
for guessing which applies right now in the face of insufficient
information, all he can do is place a wager. It might be better than
most non-economists can do, but it might not be that much better,
and it might be worse than some people can do out of just happening
to have the right kind of intuition for the current situation--or simply
holding doggedly to the same single bullet theory until it finally
happens.
From Krugman Was An Economist
Update 2007 Sept: What's not to like about Paul Krugman.
July 07, 2007
Digital Money Forum
Digital Money Forum keeps on top of electronic payments.
Example: ATM anniversary.
July 04, 2007
New NBER papers
New Papers at National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
June 24, 2007
Payments Watch
Paymentswatch, an early adopter consumer guide to electronic payments.
June 23, 2007
Digital Transactions
digitaltransactions archives on electronic payments.
June 19, 2007
Aneace Haddad, payment transaction enthusiast
Aneace Haddad on interpayments systems, settlements, transactions and
merchant banking.
June 16, 2007
Bank Tech News
banktechnews about payment, transactions and settlements.
Blocking ACH Fraud and debit filters
June 15, 2007
Bankers Online
bankersonline resource for banking regulation and practices.
Example: HMDA tour (eg Borrower Isn't
Homeowner, HMDA Reportable ? )
June 14, 2007
Payments News
paymentsnews, example of mobile-phone based transactions.
Excellent design.
June 13, 2007
link dump on payments
linkdumponpayments, very Dutch: unknowingly satisfied.
May 24, 2007
Accrued Interest
Accrued Interest aka accruedint, smart about finance and economics.
Why Home Depot should borrow more.
April 23, 2007
Marginal Utility / Tom Bozzo
atbozzo, curmudgeonly economist.
April 22, 2007
Susan Athey, econometrician, wins Clarke Medal
Susan Athey's applied econometrics and heterogeneity of mentorship
wins a Clarke medal, awarded to the most accomplished economist
nearing 40 and is the most distinguished prize short of a Nobel.
Bio.
March 02, 2007
Group health
In a group health plan, the employer typically pays a large
share of the premium, so most employees sign up as
soon as they are eligible, regardless of their health status.
The health plan covers a mix of sick and healthy workers.
By contrast, individuals and independent contractors are
more likely to defer coverage until they need it, so the pool
of people insured is, over all, less healthy. Sick people
consume more health care. As a result, the cost to insure
them is higher.
Janet S. Trautwein, executive vice president of the National Association
of Health Underwriters, which represents insurance agents and brokers.
February 09, 2007
Economist Free Exchange
economist freeexchange economics and public policy.
Adverse selection in healthcare, about inequality.
January 30, 2007
Deran Baker on economic news
Dean Baker: business reporting is not not leftish enough.
January 25, 2007
Division of Labour / group econ blog
Division of Labour econ blog finds Milton Friedman week,
with market conservative leanings.
January 23, 2007
More Mankiw
January 10, 2007
FX UDS EU by Bond Dad
FX: US$ vs Euro, US$ collapsed 2002-2005.
Noted by Bond Dad.
January 01, 2007
Y Tu Mama Tambien, a movie about two economists
Y Tu Mama Tambien (2001).
Why did Alfonso Cuaron return to Mexico to make it?
Because he has something to say about Mexico, obviously,
and also because Jack Valenti and the MPAA have made it
impossible for a movie like this to be produced in America.
It is a perfect illustration of the need for a workable adult
rating: too mature, thoughtful and frank for the R, but
not in any sense pornographic.
Why do serious film people not rise up in rage and tear
down the rating system that infantilizes their work?
-- Roger Ebert.
November 21, 2006
Who's Who: mortgage economists: Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac
"What really increases the risk of mortgage
default is if you have this payment shock coupled
with a weak economy, because a weak economy
means unemployment,"
"Family incomes are lower. And then if you layer
on top of that a payment shock, that's a trigger
event that may very well lead to a default."
quote, Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
Economic commentary, 2003-2005
Continue reading "Who's Who: mortgage economists: Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac" »
November 01, 2006
Economics Books, Economics Textbooks
Economics Books, Economics texts via Alex and Tyler (MR).
This list lacks empirical, practitioner guidance, such as
Econometric Analysis by William H. Greene.
October 17, 2006
Who's who of Real Estate economics 3: Todd Sinai
We don’t have any house price indexes that get it right
-- Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. bio, home,
Continue reading "Who's who of Real Estate economics 3: Todd Sinai" »
October 07, 2006
Who's who of Real Estate economics 2: Dave Seiders, National Association of Homebuilders
Once a sales contract is signed, there's no way of recording
the cancellation or putting the home back in inventory.
Builders keep track of gross and net sales; we don't have a
net sales number from Commerce.
-- Dave Seiders, chief economist at
the National Association of Homebuilders in Washington.
The Census Bureau, which is one of the Commerce Department's
statistical agencies, counts an initial new home sale: Sales go
up and the ``for sale'' inventory is reduced. If the sale is
canceled, it isn't reflected in revisions to previous months.
What happens? When the home is ``resold,'' statisticians
ignore that transaction.
We don't double count.
-- Steven Berman, the survey statistician for the residential branch
of the Census Bureau's manufacturing and construction division.
September 20, 2006
Credit Slips
CreditSlips covers consumer lending from an
aspiring consumer protectionist regulator perspective.
Generally well informed and level headed:
debt trading,
Consuming is where consumers feel in control
(compare to John Fiske, "Shopping for Pleasure: Malls, Power & Resistance").
Innumerate: one number represents the whole population ?
August 08, 2006
Rent to mortgage payment ratio
Rent to mortgage payment ratio.
Mortgage payments are senitive to interest rates.
Are rents less sensitive to interest rates ?
Then why would we exprect a constant
mortgage payment to rent ratio ?
July 27, 2006
Ben Stein
Invest in foreign emerging market ETFs.
Debt to foreigners and medicare costs will crush baby boomer
Americans during their retirement age.
And his criticts: BusMovie, on options backdating.
July 11, 2006
Macroeconomic gods
The heretic J. Bradford DeLong must confess his sins to St Maynard.
You know perfectly well that you have been fascninated by the
Heyekian model since you were an undergraduate. Your effort
to accuse Paul Krugman of the Hayekian/Arian Heresy based
on the claim that not all capital is Homoosian is pure projection.
Arian refers to Arius a theologian who disagreed with the
Nicean crede and not to any alleged race. Homoosian means
"of the same substance," the Nicean crede holds that God the
son and God the father(and the holy spirit) are homoosian.
However, I now realise that the Solovian doctrine that capital
is schmoo is fundamentally Nicean and that the Hayekian
Heresy is similar to the Arian Heresy.
I am shocked that even Paul Krugman has feet of clay
(I thought he had feet of putty).
-- RJ Waldmann, 2005 May 27.
July 03, 2006
Interns. Underpaid ?
Are interns underpaid and exploted ?
Yes: Anya Kamenetz, Cokie Roberts (NYT)
It's something that really makes me nuts. By setting up unpaid
internship programs, it seems to me that without completely
recognizing it, it sets up a system where you are making it ever
more difficult for people who don't have economic advantages
to catch up.
-- Cokie Roberts, an ABC News correspondent at a gathering
of Congressional interns.
No: Will Wilkinson, VoxBaby, TheStalwart, Daniel Gross.
Maybe: The Prospect.
May 10, 2006
Mortgage Payment Reset: only a 1% problem
Mortgage Payment Reset: The Rumor and the Reality.
Our nation is a $10 trillion-per-year economy currently possessing
$19 trillion in household asset value and $11 trillion in homeowner’s
equity. Losses of $110 billion – spread over several years – would
come to only about one percent of the total national homeowners’
equity.
adding about $300 billion per year to our national income. Losses
of $30 billion in a year would consume only one-tenth of this
increase, the equivalent of slowing the growth rate from 3% to 2.7%.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, mortgage
lending totals from $2 trillion to $3 trillion per year. The yearly reset
losses anticipated by this paper would constitute only about one
percent of the total annual lending amount.
Christopher Cagan, director for research and analytics at
First American Real Estate Solutions. PDF
[via NYT]
May 09, 2006
Graham and Dodd breed optimism
Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley New York revisits value analysis by Graham and Dodd.
Optimistic ?
Refs: Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd.
May 04, 2006
Mortgage refinancing, optimized
Mortgage Valuation and Optimal Refinancing, Pliska (2006)
Landholders, Residential Land Conversion, and
Market Signals, Margulis (2006)
Mortgage Payment Reset: The Rumor and the Reality,
Christopher Cagan (2006)
Option-Theoretic Prepayment Model for Mortgages,
Fabozzi, Kalotay and Yang. (2004)
The Complexities of Mortgage Options,
Prendergast (2003)
Optimal Recursive Refinancing and the Valuation of
Mortgage-Backed Securities, Longstaff (2002)
Best-Practices in Mortgage Default Risk Measurement and
Economic Capital, Kaskowitz, Lundstedt (2002)
Mortgage Banking, Comptroller’s Handbook (1998)
Subprime mortgage rate spread at origination
Residential Mortgage Termination and Severity,
De Franco. (1994)
April 09, 2006
Greg Mankiw
Greg Mankiw opines economically, mostly on current events, for
the benefit of his undergraduate Economics class.
March 31, 2006
Tax Attorney 0, Turbo Tax 4
No tax attorney needed if Turbo Tax is as good as advertized.
Turbo Tax 1: 1040 EZ
Turbo Tax 2: all 1040
Turbo Tax 3: all 1040 and Schedule C
Turbo Tax 3: all 1040 and Schedule C and professional review and additional audit defense
-- as good as a tax attorney ?
March 28, 2006
Tax Attorney vs Federal tax and spend
Ranked by tax attorney or tax CPA ? No.
State by state federal taxing and spending ranked.
Income of out-of-state workers who work via email and
telephone and often have little or no physical contact
with the state.
“The growing practice of multiple states taxing the income
of telecommuters acts as a direct financial disincentive for
employers and employees to use telecommuting.”
-- Tax Attorney
March 20, 2006
Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs
Speculative markets in essence offer to pay anyone who sees a bias in
current market prices to come and correct that bias.
Speculative market estimates are not perfect. There seems to be a
long-shot bias when there are high transaction costs, and perhaps
also excess volatility in long term aggregate price movements. But
such markets seem to do very well when compared to other
institutions.
-- Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs by Robin Hanson.
March 19, 2006
Obvious or Trivial Except ... / Tim Worstall
Tim Worstall's Obvious or Trivial Except ... examines the
political economy of Paul Krugman.
March 18, 2006
stumbling and mumbling / Chris Dillow : winner's curse
January 02, 2006
D-Squared digest
d-squared digest; jump into threads late.
Lefty English snark.
December 23, 2005
November 29, 2005
New Palgrave Dictionary: A sneak preview
New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics and the Law is previewed
(links to chapter PDFs) at the New Economist.
November 28, 2005
Catallarchy
Catallarchy -- praxiology for the masses: example.
October 23, 2005
Nouriel Roubini
Nouriel Roubini's first rate economics blog offers an
essay of macroeconomic commentary about weekly.
Quick off the mark with commentary on new Fed Chairman
nominee on Ben Bernanke.
Previously: Roubini Global Economics.
October 17, 2005
Smart Economist
Smart Economist short shart briefings.
* Sample paper: What Determines International Migration Flows ?
* Sample topic: FINANCIAL MARKETS & INSTITUTIONS
October 12, 2005
themessthatgreenspanmade / Tim Iacono
October 09, 2005
Voluntary Exchange
Voluntary Exchange is a small econ and public policy blog.
October 05, 2005
US Mid-West economy
Bill Testa covers the US Mid-West economy for the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Where is the Mid-West ?
September 23, 2005
Housing, constant quality index
macroblog looks at Shiller's claims of a housing bubble is about
about to burst.
Is the increase in housing indexes due to bigger, better houses,
or an genuine increase in the overall housing market ?
Housing price vs housing quality, now with quality control.
September 18, 2005
Brad Sester
Brad Sester's blog-portal of international and macro-economy.
September 13, 2005
Cunning Realist
September 09, 2005
The Stalwart / Joseph Weisenthal
The Stalwart's interesting business coverage, such as:
What's Really Wrong With Dell ?, on the celebrity industry:
The Case For Paparazzi.
Also a real estate analysis.
Update: Less frequent since spring of 2006, but back in April 2007.
Also guesting at TechDirt.
September 07, 2005
Daniel Gross
Daniel Gross, economic commentator, is consumer-centric
and a left-leaning fact checker
August 15, 2005
Financial Rounds: Academics argue gently
Financial Rounds on how to argue gently *.
See also Suzette Haden Elgin ...
FR visits the FMA and finds another golden oldie: NotN.
Continue reading "Financial Rounds: Academics argue gently" »
August 13, 2005
NewEconomist
How I Learned to Love Economics (New Economist)
Going on the job market got rid of my self-esteem problem.
There's nothing like explaining why your work is important to a
new captive audience every 30 minutes to make you believe that your
work really is interesting and important.
At some point it dawned on me, I really did want to be a professor.
I can work hours and hours without stopping, so long as I get to
sleep in the next morning. (If only I felt that way about exercise.)
I like being able to choose my own short-term deadlines. I like doing
research. I have important questions to answer and I enjoy the freedom
to work on them.
The process of completing my dissertation has made it much easier
both to come up with new research topics and to figure out, ahead of
time, which projects might be viable. I know which subfields in my
area are understudied. I know what data sets have or don't have the
information I would need to answer those questions. Literature reviews
for new projects bring up questions that beget future work. I have an
agenda.
August 08, 2005
edhec-risk hedge fund research
Buy a fund of funds or a hedge fund index ?
Measure risk with more than Sharpe ratio and multi-factor models.
edhec-risk reports research on investment alternatives.
Indexes and benchmarking
Multi-style multi-class risk allocation
Style and Performance analysis.
With very Germanic style:
Unique Access to all Information
Edhec-risk.com offers a unique access to all information appearing in
the different sections and archives. The information is accessed using
a search engine which generates both the key words and the content of
available documents. All the information available on the site is
accessible in relation to the key themes that correspond to the
Centre’s research programmes.
July 09, 2005
Subprime mortgage rate spread at origination
Effects largely captured by a single variable: spread at origination
(SATO). SATO measures the difference in the mortgage rate between the
specified loan and a constant-quality subprime mortgage rate. Assuming
that lenders price borrower risk efficiently, a higher SATO
implies a poorer-credit borrower.
Search for more .
July 07, 2005
Econ Browser / James Hamilton
Econbrowser, time series economist looks a current economic, investment
and business news.