Coruscation

Language skill of the day: Accuse your opponent of not 'connecting the dots':

Speculation about terrorist plots based on limited information is a fool's game. We know very little about Abdul Farouk Abdulmutallab's attempts on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 yesterday, though there are some pretty obvious questions about how he got materials on board, how dangerous they were, and what his associations may be.

Responsible federal officials will wait to get a more detailed picture before popping off in the media, making reckless accusations. Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R) of Michigan, inexplicably the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, has not yet been briefed on yesterday's incident, but that hasn't stopped him from trying to exploit the Abdulmutallab matter to score some cheap partisan points.

"It's not surprising," U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, a Holland Republican, said of the alleged terrorist attempt to blow up a Northwest Airlines flight in Detroit. ... "People have got to start connecting the dots here and maybe this is the thing that will connect the dots for the Obama administration," Hoekstra said.

#6 in the language series, How to argue (when facts and logic are against you)

Continue reading "How to argue 6: not 'connecting the dots', by Hoekstra" »

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Might people start bracing or fleeing from dreaded future changes ? No according to washingtonmonthly / Steve Benen.

But Boehner nevertheless hasn't lost his unmitigated gall confidence, and has an op-ed in the Washington Post today about how right he is about the economy.

I was actually curious to see what he'd come up with. After all, just over the last two weeks, Boehner has blamed job losses on policies that don't exist yet, and rejected the idea of a jobs bill as "repulsive." Boehner hosted an "economic roundtable" last week with a bunch of former Bush aides, so maybe he's come up with something specific to offer by now.

While the Republican from Ohio says the decrease in the unemployment rate is encouraging, he says "anyone who views today's report as cause for celebration is out of touch with the American people, especially when Washington Democrats' policies -- whether it's a government takeover of health care, a national energy tax, or 'card check' -- are already costing jobs and will pile even more debt on our kids and grandkids."

How to argue, the series, in Language.

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hecession: recession where male incident unemployment overhsaddows female unemployment.

Progressive take and spin on the econonomic scene:

As women's job losses mount, some women--especially unmarried women--are facing an increasingly grim job market. Unmarried women have much higher unemployment than married women. In October, 10.3 percent of unmarried women age 20 and over (3.3 million) and 5.7 percent of married women (2.1 million) were unemployed (see figure below; all data by marital status is not seasonally adjusted). Although unmarried women represent less than half (46.5 percent) of all women workers, they account for 6 in 10 (60.8 percent) of women workers who are unemployed. The situation is worse for unmarried women who head families, most of whom are single mothers, who now have an unemployment rate of 12.6 percent, 2.4 percentage points above the national average.

Question not asked: are married women more likely to drift into and out of the laborforce, given job prospects or lack thereof ?

Continue reading "Progressive polemics take on the 'he'-cession" »

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One set are free-enterprise champions who argue that politicizing consumption distorts prices and spurs overproduction while imposing arbitrary conditions on producers -- like insisting that developing-world farmers enroll their children in school -- that might sound good to Westerners but ignore complex local realities.

Insisting on the noblest production methods conflicts, these critics say, with the very function of markets: to bring the most goods to the most people as cheaply as possible.

Another group of critics doesn't deny political consumption's power. Rather, they bemoan that citizenship has come to this.

Citizenship, for them, is about voting, marching, writing -- about being involved. In the modern age, they say, we have begun to turn inward, bowl alone, shirk our public duties. And now comes this cheap (in the moral, if not economic, sense) way to participate just a little, assuage guilt just a little, involve ourselves just a little in AIDS and trade, feel just a little of activism's thrill.

In an article last year in The Lancet, the British medical journal, the scholars Colleen O'Manique and Ronald Labonte strongly condemned RED, the marketing campaign for iPods and other products whose purchase helps to finance the battle against H.I.V./AIDS in Africa.

"Be wary of the 21st century's new noblesse oblige that replaces the efficiency of tax-funded programs and transfers in improving health equity with a consumption-driven 'charitainment' model," they wrote.

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After years of complaining about private health insurers denying care, the democrat plan
is now to penalize insurers who do provide full coverage.

Mr. Baucus's plan, expected to cost $850 billion to $900 billion over 10 years, would tax insurance companies on their most expensive health care policies. The hope is that employers would buy cheaper, less generous coverage for employees, thereby reducing the overuse of medical services.

The separate new fee on insurance companies would help raise money to pay for the plan. The fee would raise $6 billion a year starting in 2010, and it would be allocated among insurance companies according to their market shares.

The fees were first proposed by Senators Charles E. Schumer of New York, John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia and Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Until now, Mr. Baucus had not shown interest in the idea.

Mr. Schumer said, "The health insurance industry should pay its fair share of the cost because it stands to gain over 40 million new consumers under health care reform legislation."

Mr. Rockefeller said the fees were justified because insurance companies were "rapaciously, greedily and unstoppably making money by underpaying the patient, by underpaying the provider and by overpaying themselves."

Continue reading "Democrat plan to stop private health insurance companies from providing benefits ?" »

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The addition of Mr. Biden was interesting, for a number of reasons. Mr. Biden was able to draw on his credibility with blue-collar, labor union America and his roots in Scranton, Pa., to add balance to the photo op that the White House presented: two black guys, two white guys, sitting around a table.

The four drank out of beer mugs. Mr. Obama had a Bud Lite, Sergeant Crowley had Blue Moon, Professor Gates drank Sam Adams Light and Mr. Biden, who does not drink, had a Buckler nonalcoholic beer. (Mr. Biden put a lime slice in his beer. Sergeant Crowley, for his part, kept with Blue Moon tradition and had a slice of orange in his drink.)

Officer Crowley is said (Carney @Clusterstock) to be a fan of Blue Moon, the faux Belgian Wheat Ale that is actually made by Canada's Molson. According to the Boston Globe, Gates likes Red Stripe and Beck's.

Continue reading "The utility of Joe Biden" »

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During the campaign, Obama talked about the need to control medical costs and mentioned a few ideas for doing so, but he rarely lingered on the topic. He spent more time talking about expanding health-insurance coverage, which would raise the government's bill. After the election, however, when time came to name a budget director, Obama sent a different message. He appointed Peter Orszag, who over the last two years has become one of the country's leading experts on the looming budget mess that is health care.

Their argument happens to be supported by a rich body of economic literature that didn't even make it into the book. More-educated people are healthier, live longer and, of course, make more money. Countries that educate more of their citizens tend to grow faster than similar countries that do not. The same is true of states and regions within this country. Crucially, the income gains tend to come after the education gains. What distinguishes thriving Boston from the other struggling cities of New England? Part of the answer is the relative share of children who graduate from college. The two most affluent immigrant groups in modern America -- Asian-Americans and Jews -- are also the most educated. In recent decades, as the educational attainment of men has stagnated, so have their wages. The median male worker is roughly as educated as he was 30 years ago and makes roughly the same in hourly pay. The median female worker is far more educated than she was 30 years ago and makes 30 percent more than she did then.

Continue reading "Health Care: Coverage vs Cost" »

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A hypothetical on the middle class tax cut, or tax hike ?

You favor eliminating the cap on earnings subject to the 12.4 percent Social Security tax, which now covers only the first $102,000. A Chicago police officer married to a Chicago public-school teacher, each with 20 years on the job, have a household income of $147,501, so you would take another $5,642 from them. Are they undertaxed? Are they rich?

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"If George W. Bush becomes president, the armies of the homeless, hundreds of thousands strong, will once again be used to illustrate the opposition's arguments about welfare, the economy, and taxation."

-- Mark Helprin, Oct. 31, 2000

In Obama's 2009, Calculated Risk is nostalgic for Reagantowns of the 1980s.

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Stimulus scuffle -- it will be really difficult to re-contextualize such discussions by year 2020.

But with public opinion quickly turning against the bill, and the House Republicans claiming the moral high ground as they held formation to oppose him, how could Obama be distanced from responsibility for elements of the bill under GOP attack and remain above the fray? That seemed to be the locus of White House concern, and according to those familiar with what happened, the "polarizing" Nancy Pelosi was designated to take the fall.

Rather than define the bill by its substance and make its opponents attack jobs creation, the strategy was to talk about process -- how everyone's ideas on both sides of the aisle would be welcome and that this bill would represent the best bipartisan thinking about how to face the current economic crisis. That left the door wide open for Republicans to step through and caterwaul that their ideas weren't being respected in this new halcyon world of bipartisanship, and somebody had to take the blame. Nancy Pelosi, come on down!

-- Jane Hamsher @ FDL

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Middle class faded out above $140,000 to $250,000 per year, back in 1993.

Paul Krugman, 1993 on Bill 'Middle Class Tax Cut' Clinton's tax plan:

Bill Clinton's economic program: higher income taxes for wealthy Americans. Families with taxable incomes above $ 140,000 currently pay a tax rate of 31 percent. The Clinton plan will raise that rate to 36 percent, and families with taxable income over $ 250,000 will pay 39.6 percent.

...
Suppose a couple earning $ 200,000 a year has a $ 600,000 mortgage, two children in expensive colleges, large car payments and lavish tastes.

Continue reading "Krugman and Clinton: middle class up to $250,000 in 1993" »

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The stimulus efforts could focus on public goods and durable infrastructure, taking advantage of a lull in private investment to deploy underutilized resources without
crowding out much private investment.

Or, the stimulus could just be a lot of walking around money.

Some street money comes from party fundraisers, like the Philadelphia Democratic Party's biannual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. But most of it comes directly from the candidates. Everyone from the presidential nominee to congressmen and state representatives are expected to chip in. (The top of the ticket usually contributes the most.) In Philadelphia, the candidate sends a check to the chairman of the city's Democratic Party, who then divides the money up among the 69 ward leaders, who in turn divvy up their cash among the 50 or so committee people in each ward. In 2004, John Kerry spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Philadelphia street money, and ward leaders received checks for as much as $8,000. Individual volunteers can generally expect anywhe

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So sorry ?

Are you as sorry as you were four years ago ?

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Public goods are a great outlet for soveriegn spending. But are new projects really shovel-ready ?

Commuter trains are topping the charts at citizensbriefingbook.change.gov.

NIMBYs are organizing.

Supporters of trains are lining up.

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Is ever increasing car ownership a healthly goal. Or is mobility a healthier goal ?

I worry that the avalanche of troubles already ongoing will overwhelm Mr. Obama and his people. It's also well worth worrying whether they will pursue policies similar in kind to the ones pursued by Bush, namely throwing money at everything and anything, and it sure looks like they are planning to do just that. I am especially concerned about an "infrastructure stimulus" project aimed at highway improvement at the expense of public transit. This would be the epitome of a campaign to sustain the unsustainable. We need to begin planning right away for a transition away from automobiles, not in order to be good socialists but because Happy Motoring is at the core of our unsustainability trap.

Continue reading "America's middle class is motorized mobilized" »

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Mathew Yglesias gets some attention this week.

What makes Matt worth noting ?

He's mildly ingratiating, sometimes merely diplomatic; and he shows the education and writing ability to articulate the practical consensus of his readers.

On the downside, he moves is blog every six months, to the American Prospect, Tapped, Atlantic, to ThinkProgress; maybe he should just park it on Xanga.

Continue reading "Mathew Yglesias" »

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Ahead of the Crisis

Social conscious investing did will in 2008.

Amy O'Brien, part of the social and community investing department at TIAA-CREF, says that Social Choice Equity screens financial-services companies based on factors that include corporate governance, predatory-lending practices, transparency and executive pay.

Matt Zuck, part of a five-person management team of AHA Socially Responsible Equity Fund, says that while screens can sift out some bad stocks, the discipline of tighter screening requires a manager to dig deeper. "It forces you to ask more questions about a company. It's valuable as an analytical tool," he says.

See also Vice stocks down in recession.

Continue reading "Socially conscious /ethical investing" »

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A show of hands at an Obama rally Thursday after the candidate asked who made less than $250,000. Senator Barack Obama says those audience members would benefit from his plan.

Mr. Obama opposes extending President Bush's tax cuts. Instead, he proposes various tax breaks, including a $500 tax credit for each person in a household who works, a larger child care tax credit, a $4,000 tax credit each year for the first two years of college, and eliminating all income taxes for those over 65 with income less than $50,000 a year.

Mr. McCain also proposes giving many households a $5,000 tax credit when they buy family health insurance, which costs $12,000 nationwide on average.

Previously: Charles Gibson of ABC: $200,000 a year was a middle-class income.

Continue reading "Under $250,000 is middle class: Obama" »

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Funnier than Michael Palin.

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Have you ever tried to talk someone out of a bad idea?

Some people are going to be open-minded and listen to your objections,
and if you're actually right, they'll consider the evidence and take
your advice. Some people will get defensive, however, and refuse to listen.

Some people will get so defensive that they'll actually double down to
prove the nay-sayers wrong--they'll marry that bad boyfriend or put more
money into the bad investment. They will, rather than risk the chance that
they might get proven wrong and open themselves to a chorus of
"I told you sos", will live in denial about their bad decisions until the last
possible moment when it's becoming clear that they cannot sustain this
bad decision any longer.

Having framed the question, the fact that America's reaction to
increasing evidence of both peak oil and global warming would be to
reduce our average gas mileage was entirely predictable.

...

it was inevitable that a high percentage of people would like SUVs not in spite of their low mileage, but because of the low mileage. Instead of wishing human nature to change, then, I'm going to suggest that the people who exploited this rationalization tendency hold the lion's share of the blame. For people who wanted to engage in wishful thinking about the relationship between oil and environmental problems, right wing pundits, car companies, and oil companies did all the hard psychological rationalizing work for people. They painted critics as effeminate hippies that are just trying to tell you what to do because they're sanctimonious and nosy. (That some really are sanctimonious only made the situation worse.) They gave people pseudo-scientific explanations they could latch onto.

Pandagon

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"When you are crying foul in a presidential campaign, it usually
means you are losing."

-- Mr. Chris Lehane, the Democratic operative, pronounced himself
delighted that the McCain campaign was feeling victimized.

How to argue (without facts or logic), the series.

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Yglesias' argument is emphatically about a practical,
politically feasible Democratic foreign policy, and not
about seizing the quasi-pacifist moral high ground.

-- CC@unfogged.

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You are doing what you accuse older feminists of doing
-- declaring your views unassailable simply because you
have them.

They say,"You weren't there,"
You say, "You aren't here."

Okay, but you still have to make your case -- plenty of
young women, including young feminists, don't share
your POV. Your real beef with Ariel Levy, for example,
is not that she's too old and out of it to understand
young women (she's only in her early thirties).

It's that you don't agree with her view that today's
sexual culture (girls gone wild, hooking up etc) is
basically exploitation and exhibitionism packaged
as feminism. I'm not saying she's right or wrong,
I'm just saying that "Female Chauvinist Pigs" presents
an actual argument, not a mindless ignorant diss
of young women by some old fussbudget who
knows little about them.

Katha Pollitt, in response to The Feminist Sorority.

How to argue (without facts or logic), the series.

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We moved to Canada, by former Americans.

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thetyee.ca Vancouverite proleview culture zone cannot be elitist.

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Dean Baker: business reporting is not not leftish enough.

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Atrios's bookshelf.
A former economist, indeed.

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Do they need to be feminists who like porn or can
they be porny types who are also feminists?

-- MeFi

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Vision:

Science, research and education powerhouse

Record: The Budget-maximizing Bureaucrat,
Explaining Quebec Nationalism,
The Collapse of Canada
Parties and the Size of Government in Liberal Democracies.

Fans and endorsers:

Rob Edger
Westmount Liberal
Calgary Grit
idealisticpragmatist
The Tyee - Laura

Accepted by:
Fuddle Duddle (formerly fuddle-duddle)
dynamiteonline (but Dion needs to learn to speak English)

Detractors:
Bob Rae-supporting RedTory says 'Dion was, um, clumsy at best and his English, quite atrocious and haphazard'.

Continue reading "Stephane Dion takes Canada's Liberal leadership / Stéphane Dion - Parti libéral du Canada " »

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We, we are assessing the alternatives. The other guys,
they are divided and squabbling.

Continue reading "Squabbling vs assessing the alternatives" »

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Glenn Greenwald, litigator, (vs W) passes the hat.

Unclaimed Territory on W, again. An appreciation.

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SideShow UK, left news summary and blog survey.

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CreditSlips covers consumer lending from an
aspiring consumer protectionist regulator perspective.

Generally well informed and level headed:
debt trading,

Consuming is where consumers feel in control
(compare to John Fiske, "Shopping for Pleasure: Malls, Power & Resistance").

Innumerate: one number represents the whole population ?

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On how Freedom became central to the Republican party's
campaign for word domination.

Nunberg notes there are lots of metaphors for the state
—a ship adrift, an actor on the world stage, a city on a
hill, a house with crumbling foundations—and there is
simply no reason to think one of them structures our
political thought. We should all thank Nunberg for
suggesting that there is no thread, metaphorical or
logical, that runs through the contingently evolving
packages of partisan commitment.

-- WW

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We must talk about good stuff to get elected.
Here is he good stuff we will do.

Now, when you preface your policy proposals by indicating that said
proposals are intended to win elections and unite your party, you have
already pretty much ended any chance that people will think you
making said proposals because you believe in those proposals.

This is because, well, you just said that the purpose of these
proposals was to win elections. Americans love it when politicians
admit in public that their legislative proposals are designed to win
elections.

Meme democratic leadership.

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Mickey and Mallory ?
Jane Hamsher of Fire Dog Lake in New Haven, feeling the Joementum.

Continue reading "Jane and her poodles" »

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See Al Gore's movie for free.

Update 2006 July: Now the 12th bigge$t movie of the week,
and the 4th bigge$t documentary of all time.

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Fire Dog Lake / Jane Hamsher. Example . With Christy Hardin Smith.

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Governance could be worse. Draft Gore 2008.
Also: Ozone Man's Climate Crisis and SNL address
-- YouTube (Flash), C & L (QuickTime).

As for immigration, solving that came at a heavy cost, and I
personally regret the loss of California.

Previously: Al Gore's heart and soul, protecting our children
from the dangers of smoking.

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Dilbert's war for money.

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Bull Moose aka Marshall Wittman is a fair handed Democrat.

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Love Makes a Family's cable guy Ned Lamont (opponent of legitimate
Vice-President Joe Leiberman) events in Connecticut.

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Hatcityblog watches Danbury, CT.

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When all else fails, the Administration has simply preached:
In February, a hundred CDC researchers on sexually transmitted
diseases were summoned to Washington by HHS deputy secretary
Claude Allen for a daylong affair consisting entirely of speakers
extolling abstinence until marriage. There were no panels or
workshops, just endless testimonials, including one by a
young woman calling herself "a born-again virgin."

-- "Bootylicious" Brock.

Continue reading "Bang me silly, Claude Allen" »

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George W Bush, comforter.

BUSH: When I saw TV reporters interviewing people
who were screaming for help. It looked the scenes
looked chaotic and desperate. And I realized that our
government was could have done a better job of
comforting people.

Americans should find comfort in knowing that millions
of their fellow citizens are working every day to ensure
our security at every level -- federal, state, county, municipal.

The more people learn about the port deal and the
government's scrutiny of it, the more they'll be comforted.

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Generation X at 40 attracts civil thoughtful comments.
How Canadian.

Highlights: Friday chat.

Down with pervasive remote-sensing automated computerized
biometric surveillance - Up With Hats !

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bluegrit epitomizes level headed Liberals. Example:

is the tendency for leftists to ally themselves with brutal enemies of
western civilization. There were many leftists during the Cold War
who empathized with the Soviet Union. In the same vein, today,
there are many who try to make excuses for the Islamists.

-- 2006 Feb.

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d-squared digest; jump into threads late.
Lefty English snark.

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For all their crowing about traditional values, it's the right that
has embraced decadence, sadism, vice and corruption.

A very revealing portrait of what's happening in America explains
some things about why the right is so successful. And it's the
opposite of what everybody says it is. It isn't because they've
become more moral and religious. It's because they've fostered
and exploited extremism, nihilism and cruelty.

After all, if it was the libertine culture of "Brokeback Mountain" or
"unwed motherhood" or (gasp) abortion that was creating this
shift, you'd think we would have benefitted, not them. For all
their crowing about traditional values, it's the right that has
embraced decadence, sadism, vice and corruption.

Continue reading "Traditional values" »

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The Republican Party doesn't offer to validate your identity.
It offers to give you an identity....The identity it offers you
is that of a player.

-- Garret Keizer,
Crap Shoot: Everyone Loses When Politics Is a Game,
Harper's.

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Shorter NYT. Feminism as upscale as our advertizers.

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logbase2 is mostly biostatistics and visualization,
with a blast of r.

Bonus (detritus ?): And compliant lefty Canadian commentary.

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Proposition 79 would use the purchasing power of the State of
California to negotiate the best price for up to ten million
Californians, who now pay more than anybody else in the world
for prescription drugs.

* Prop. 78 is completely voluntary for drug companies: they
are free to choose whether or not to offer discounts.

* Prop. 79 has an enforcement mechanism. If a drug company
refuses to provide discounts, the state can shift business away
from that company and buy more from other drug companies that
offer discounts.

Above is from the so-called Better California campaign site for
Prop 79 *.

Klingian Question of the Day:
What is preventing buyers from comparison shopping
between drug companies, either now or under Prop 78 ?

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* Any judicial ruling overturning a law is in wrong, that judges
can only decide what a law means not whether or not it is
Constitutional, so that any ruling overturning a previous ruling
that made new law is simply restoring order to the land. That
negating something doesn't bring anything else into existence.

* State legislatures and Congress are the only ones with the
authority to intepret the Constitution and that they also have the
power to change it whenever they choose, without having to resort
to a Constitutional amedment.

[*]

Continue reading "Legislating from the bench" »

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Daily Howler chronicles the errors and omissions of beat reporters.
It should run as as series of footnotes below the broad pages of
the main stream media, as law review footnotes run below the
simplified article text, or better, as mash up with a Joel, Tom,
and Crow providing counter-commentary below the official
broadcast.

Example: Chief Justice Robert's proletarian roots vs Vice-President
Gore's agrarian roots.

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Decembrist (Mark Schmitt) offers essay-length laments.

Examples: The confessional, Fear of a coherent Democrat vision;
video game paradigm and no fan of Italian beastiality.

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Roberts purports to rock: offers lawyer jokes
and doubts Michael Jackson.

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Washington DC -centric well written worldly views at
typepad: example; and at tpmcafe: example.

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Without parental consent, BitchPhD overcomes depression.

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Bush on Canada.

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The Liberals will form the next government after this month's
provincial election (2005 May 17) in British Columbia. Exactly who
will be sitting in the House isn't certain yet in at least two
ridings after initial counts ended in razor-thin margins.

Roundup:

Right: Fraser Institute

The Liberals have almost nothing to gain by placating the demands of
union leaders. They may further recognize that introducing flexible
and balanced labour laws would result in a better functioning labour
market for B.C. workers, one characterized by higher rates of job
creation, lower unemployment, and higher wages. Finally, they may also
realize that, by introducing measures of flexibility into the
province’s labour laws, they will indirectly weaken the powers
afforded union leaders.

Contrary to the posturing of many union leaders, B.C. still maintains
relatively rigid and biased labour laws. A recent evaluation of
provincial and state labour relations laws found that B.C. ranked 57th
out of the 60 jurisdictions in terms of flexibility and balance.

Lorne Gunter

Left:

Antonia Zerbisias

Politics in BC

Willcocks

Even bear604 is no fan of Jenny Kwan

Continue reading "British Columbia election roundup" »

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The Washington Note: opposition viewpoint from close up on Capitol Hill,
by Steve Clemons.

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Red states, blue states, as seen from Germany.

Continue reading "Germans poke their eyes out and see America" »

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Bibamus' economic punditry is left democrat partisan but fair. A notch less shrill than
Economist's View.

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Economistsview offers leftist hardcore partisan commentary, often Oregon-centric, posing as economic analysis. (archives).

Update 2006 May: value added.
Update 2005 October: Offers pointers to academic papers and Fed speeches.

Update 2010 Jan:
at CBS MoneyWatch. They named it named Maximum Utility 1,

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busybusybusy is a great leftish summary the
day's talking heads' punditry.

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Kevin Drum is Political Animal, the in-house blogger of
The Washington Monthly and something of a clearinghouse
for smart liberals.

Update Dec 2008: Moved to Mother Jones. as Kevin Drum.

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Liberal Oasis is a hand-edited (not an RSS automaton) portal of what's hot and
recent in the liberal - left - democrat websphere.

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The American Prospect (mostly Matthew Yglesias)'s Tapped.
Leftish news and mostly logical commentary.

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The Left Coaster. A liberal blog
with more thinking than linking.

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When not dreaming of fleeing to Canada, Blue State Sprocketers dream of seceding.

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election.princeton by Sam Wang averages all polls, fits a trend, and
predicts Kerry will win.

Monday, 2004 November 01, 12:00PM noon Eastern time

Median outcome, decided voters:
Kerry 252 EV, Bush 286 EV (±40 EV MoE)

Popular Meta-Margin among decided voters:
Bush leads Kerry by 0.9%

Predicted median with undecideds:
Kerry 280 EV, Bush 258 EV

Electoral prediction with undecideds and turnout:
Kerry 323 EV, Bush 215 EV

Popular vote prediction with undecideds and turnout:
Kerry 50%, Bush 48%, Nader/other 2%

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Newdonkey, well produced and reasonable democrats.

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Atrios Eschaton, aka Duncan Black's late breaking partisan
democrat news and spite, punctuated by occasional thoughtful commentary
about Ricardian equivalence. ('Eschatology' is a long word
for end game.)

Update 2008 August:twittering

Example:

On ABC's The Note:

I've been reading the Note since the middle of the 2004
presidential campaign, and I must say it's one of the funniest
things I've ever encountered. It's the perfect parody of the
insular, snobbish, in-crowd mindset of Washington journalism.

You've captured everything: the craven subservience to power,
the swooning over empty Republican chest-beating, the total
ignorance of issues that matter to non-millionaires, the snide
sidelong shots at people who understand those issues, and -
particularly when you talk about Howard Dean - the pissiness of
people who believe themselves elite and can't quite understand
why nobody else is listening to their pearls of wisdom.

It's like a transcript of a cocktail party attended exclusively
by ultra-rich child molesters and whores. Congratulations on
the brilliant work, and remember the words of satirist Michael
O'Donoghue: "Making people laugh is the lowest form of comedy."

More like this: Archives.

Atrios' bookshelf. shows some economics.
Unaffiliated with Immanentize the eschaton.

Continue reading "Atrios Eschaton / Duncan Black" »

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Dailykos, frequently updated democrat group blog.

Also publishes Dkosopedia, WiKi for lefty democrats.

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James Wolcott, well written punditry and spinsterism.

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Talking Points Memo, Joshua Micah Marshall.

Update: On the presentation skills of George W. Bush, 43.

Update 2007 Sept.: Fawning CJR profile.

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MyDD :: Due Diligence of Politics -- Chris Bowers.

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One Sunday I was driving through Missouri on Interstate 70, letting the
radio scan through the frequencies, and pausing on each station for a
minute. I heard a country station, a news talk station, another country
station, and a religious service. The commentator on the news talk station
was horrified that a grant for AIDS awareness was being used to
talk about sex (in San Francisco). His view now enjoys national influnece.

Speak No Evil

Scientists who study AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases say they
have been warned by federal health officials that their research may come
under unusual scrutiny by the Department of Health and Human Services or by
members of Congress, because the topics are politically controversial.

The scientists, who spoke on condition they not be identified, say they have
been advised they can avoid unfavorable attention by keeping certain "key
words" out of their applications for grants from the National Institutes of Health
or the Centers for Disease Control and Prion. Those words include sex
workers, men who sleep with men, anal sex and needle exchange, the
scientists said.

[Full story below]

Continue reading "Speak no evil" »

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